509 Scott St · Tye, TX 79563

$98,500

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,440 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 79 Days on market

Built 1952 8,407 sqft lot $68/sqft · 35% below area Est $152k · 35% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the A- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Appreciation +7.1/10.0
• Livability +3.3/5.0
• Schools +3.2/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

3 bed 1.5 bath fixer upper. Lots of potential for investors. Only 8 miles from Stargate Data Center.

Key facts

• 8,407 sq ft lot
• Parking
• Built 1952

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $98k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $549 ($7k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $98k).
• Recommended offer: $93k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 66/100 on livability (#631 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment C-, health & safety D+, schools F.
• Merkel ISD (rural): math 37% / reading 39% proficiency, ranked #460 of 826 in TX (top 56%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 11 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 508 units permitted in Taylor County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $5k of equity ($681 loan paydown + $4k appreciation (4.2% local appreciation)).
• Taylor County population projected at +16% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (4.2% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $28k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 7, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$31k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 79 days — a 6% lower offer ($93k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts since 4y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $6k (6%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1952 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 6→18/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $92,590 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 79 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1952 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.52% ✓
• Cap rate: 12.99%
• Cash-on-cash: 23.91%
• DSCR: 2.06
• GRM: 5.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $152,443
• List price: $98,500
• Delta: -35.39%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 17 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 2 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
634 Mccartney Ln	0.50mi	3/2.0	1,426 (-1%)	1mo	$289,900	$203	74
218 Nolan St	0.27mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,610 (+12%)	23mo	$84,900	$53	44

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

4.22% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 32.3%
• Equity multiple: 2.93×
• Total profit: $53,345
• Equity at exit: $51,194

10-year hold

• IRR: 31.5%
• Equity multiple: 5.83×
• Total profit: $133,261
• Equity at exit: $84,747

Cash invested: $27,580 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 79563

• Home prices YoY: 2.3%
• Active inventory: 11
• Price-to-rent: 5.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,495 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$517
• Tax from tax record: −$74 /mo · $888/yr
• Insurance: −$41
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$314
• Net cashflow: $549

Break-even live

Break-even rent $799

Max offer price $98,500

Occupancy floor 58%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $605	-5% $577	+0% $549	+5% $522	+10% $494
Rent	-10% $431	-5% $490	+0% $549	+5% $609	+10% $668
Rate	-1.0pp $599	-0.5pp $575	base $549	+0.5pp $524	+1.0pp $498

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $24,625
• Closing costs: $2,955
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
102 Mendy Ln Tye, TX	2.0	2.0	1064	$1,495	$1.41	44d	1	0.41mi

Listing history 22 events

1. 2026-06-18
   status $98,500 Pending 79 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $98,500 Active Option Contract 79 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $98,500 Active Option Contract 78 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $98,500 Active Option Contract 77 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $98,500 Active Option Contract 76 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $98,500 Active Option Contract 74 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $98,500 Active Option Contract 73 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $98,500 Active Option Contract 71 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $98,500 Active Option Contract 70 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $98,500 Active Option Contract 69 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $98,500 Active Option Contract 68 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $98,500 Active Option Contract 63 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $98,500 Active Option Contract 62 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $98,500 Active Option Contract 61 DOM
15. 2026-05-30
    days on market $98,500 Active Option Contract 60 DOM
16. 2026-04-23
    price $98,500 100-char remark

    Show marketing remark (100 chars)

    3 bed 1.5 bath fixer upper. Lots of potential for investors. Only 8 miles from Stargate Data Center.

17. 2026-03-20
    listed $105,000 Active 100-char remark

    Show marketing remark (100 chars)

    3 bed 1.5 bath fixer upper. Lots of potential for investors. Only 8 miles from Stargate Data Center.

18. 2023-10-26
    price $49,000
19. 2023-10-26
    status Active
20. 2023-03-31
    listed $79,900 Active
21. 2022-08-12
    listed $54,900 Active
22. 1997-07-07
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $888 · $74/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,803 · $150/mo
• Expected delta: +$915/yr (+$76/mo · 103.1%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 8/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 6 d/yr ≥104°F today · 18 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 4/10 Moderate 14% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $17,940
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,518
• − Property taxes: −$888
• − Insurance: −$492
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,435
• − Management: −$1,435
• − Depreciation: −$2,865
• Taxable income: $5,307
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,274
• After-tax cash flow: $5,320/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Merkel ISD
• NCES district ID: 4830340
• Math proficiency: 37% ▼ -7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 39% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $43,594
• Composite: 32.22/100
• National rank: #5774
• State rank: #460 of 826 in TX

Livability — Tye

• Score: 66/100
• State rank: #631
• US rank: #12064

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment C- Housing A+ Health & safety D+ User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Tye, TX
• Population (ZIP): 925

Population outlook (Taylor County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 145,270 people
• By 2030: 150,050 · +3.3%
• By 2040: 159,417 · +9.7%
• By 2050: 168,883 · +16.3%
• By 2075: 194,436 · +33.8%
• By 2100: 203,163 · +39.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (75%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 75% Hispanic / Latino 19% Two or more races 7% Black 4%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 16%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 7% · Canada
• Languages at home: 89% English-only · Spanish 11%

Political lean MEDSL · Taylor

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+49.8) · D 24.6% · R 74.4% · Other 1.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -4.2pp toward R · 2008: -45.6pp · 2024: -49.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+49.8 2020: R+45.3 2016: R+51.1 2012: R+53.6 2008: R+45.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 4.22%
• Current HPI: 186.4951
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+79.4% since first listed

7 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-23 Price Changed $98,500 NTREIS
• 2026-03-20 Listed $105,000 NTREIS
• 2023-10-26 Price Changed $49,000 NTREIS
• 2023-10-26 Relisted — NTREIS
• 2023-03-31 Listed $79,900 NTREIS
• 2022-08-12 Listed $54,900 NTREIS
• 1997-07-07 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+3.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $888 · -4.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.