2950 Arlington Dr

Buena Vista, MI 48601

$67,900B

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,264 sqft · Built 1965 · SingleFamily · Active · 39 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $961/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$356
• Tax + insurance: −$66
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$202
• Net cashflow: $338/mo
• Annual: $4,050/yr
• Cap rate: 12.26%
• Cash-on-cash: 21.30%
• DSCR: 1.95
• 1% rule: 1.42%
• Cash to close: $19,012

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $68k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $338 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($961 rent vs $68k).
• It's been on market 39 days — a 3% lower offer ($66k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $66k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $469 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 59/100 on livability (#615 in MI) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing B+; Watch: health & safety C-, schools F, crime F.
• Bridgeport-Spaulding Community School District (suburban): math 7% / reading 17% proficiency, ranked #513 of 540 in MI (top 95%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 75% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 201 active listings in the ZIP; 6 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 45d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 100% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 154 units permitted in Saginaw County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Saginaw County population projected at -25% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 16 sale attempts since 11y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $28k; list at $68k implies a 138% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $19k cash investment doubles in ~6 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 39 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1965 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.