2950 Arlington Dr · Buena Vista, MI 48601

$67,900

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,264 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 39 Days on market

Built 1965 10,454 sqft lot $54/sqft · 24% below area Est $89k · 24% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +9.2/10.0
• Livability +3.0/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.0/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Brick ranch with lots of potential! This home features 3 bedrooms, 1 full bath, a 1-car attached garage, deck, and fenced yard. Recent updates include a new roof and updated furnace. Previously used as a rental, the home does need some TLC but offers a great opportunity for investors or buyers looking to add their own finishing touches. Call today for your personal showing.

Key facts

• Fenced yard
• Deck
• Updated furnace

Tags

• NEW ROOF
• UPDATED FURNACE
• FENCED YARD
• DECK

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Homeowners association present

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage (1.5 spaces)
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Single-family residence; One-level layout; Brick construction
• Construction: Brick exterior
• Exterior features: Paved road access; Lot dimensions approximately 75 x 140; Approximately 0.24 acre lot; Residential zoning; No pool

Interior

• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating (natural gas); Ceiling fan cooling
• Interior features: Gas water heater; Crawl space basement; 5 total rooms

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $68k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $338 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($961 rent vs $68k).
• Recommended offer: $66k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 59/100 on livability (#615 in MI) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing B+; Watch: health & safety C-, schools F, crime F.
• Bridgeport-Spaulding Community School District (suburban): math 7% / reading 17% proficiency, ranked #513 of 540 in MI (top 95%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 75% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 201 active listings in the ZIP; 6 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 44d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 100% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 154 units permitted in Saginaw County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $469 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Saginaw County population projected at -25% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $19k cash investment doubles in ~6 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 39 days — a 3% lower offer ($66k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 16 sale attempts since 11y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $28k; list at $68k implies a 138% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Recommended offer $65,863 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 39 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1965 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.42% ✓
• Cap rate: 12.26%
• Cash-on-cash: 21.30%
• DSCR: 1.95
• GRM: 5.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $88,851
• List price: $67,900
• Delta: -23.58%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
2963 Welland Dr	0.11mi	3/1.5	1,268 (+0%)	7mo	$165,000	$130	86
1765 Ribble St	0.53mi	3/1.0	1,220 (-4%)	5mo	$122,000	$100	65
7 Weymouth Ct	0.22mi	3/1.0	1,095 (-13%)	4mo	$69,900	$64	64
2510 S Outer Dr	0.37mi	3/1.0	1,336 (+6%)	12mo	$112,000	$84	64
3407 Tatham Rd	0.67mi	3/1.0	1,268 (+0%)	8mo	$150,000	$118	62
3326 Elmers Dr	0.22mi	3/2.0	1,378 (+9%)	16mo	$115,000	$83	57
3343 Yauck Rd	0.31mi	3/1.0	1,398 (+11%)	14mo	$117,000	$84	57
1579 Joy Rd	0.74mi	3/1.0	1,188 (-6%)	6mo	$66,000	$56	50
2454 Bellevue St	0.62mi	3/1.0	1,156 (-8%)	11mo	$69,900	$60	47
4984 Hull Rd	0.50mi	3/1.5	1,452 (+15%)	8mo	$130,000	$90	43
3580 Mack Rd	0.74mi	4/1.5 (+1)	1,204 (-5%)	14mo	$135,000	$112	39
1725 Ribble St	0.53mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,105 (-13%)	16mo	$69,000	$62	32

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 13.8%
• Equity multiple: 1.55×
• Total profit: $10,479
• Equity at exit: $10,124

10-year hold

• IRR: 22.6%
• Equity multiple: 2.93×
• Total profit: $36,746
• Equity at exit: $5,871

Cash invested: $19,012 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 62 Landlord-Friendly
• State Michigan: 62 Landlord-Friendly · EVEN
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

7-day pay-or-quit; mixed climate; Detroit/AA have some protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 48601

• Home prices YoY: -32.1%
• Active inventory: 201
• Price-to-rent: 5.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $961 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$356
• Tax from tax record: −$37 /mo · $447/yr
• Insurance: −$28
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$202
• Net cashflow: $338

Break-even live

Break-even rent $534

Max offer price $67,900

Occupancy floor 60%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $376	-5% $357	+0% $338	+5% $318	+10% $299
Rent	-10% $262	-5% $300	+0% $338	+5% $375	+10% $413
Rate	-1.0pp $372	-0.5pp $355	base $338	+0.5pp $320	+1.0pp $302

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $16,975
• Closing costs: $2,037
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 6 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2800 Gemini St Unit GE2800 Saginaw, MI	3.0	2.0	960	$920	$0.96	44d	1	0.43mi
2620 Gemini St Unit GE2620 Saginaw, MI	3.0	2.0	1140	$920	$0.81	44d	1	0.57mi
2564 Apollo Dr Unit AP2564 Saginaw, MI	3.0	2.0	960	$883	$0.92	44d	1	0.59mi
2554 Apollo Dr Unit AP2554 Saginaw, MI	3.0	2.0	960	$883	$0.92	44d	1	0.60mi
2601 Germain Dr Saginaw, MI	3.0	1.5	1554	$1,275	$0.82	44d	1	1.31mi
3328 Webber St Saginaw, MI	3.0	1.0	878	$1,250	$1.42	44d	1	1.43mi

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $67,900 Active 39 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $67,900 Active 37 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $67,900 Active 36 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $67,900 Active 35 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $67,900 Active 34 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $67,900 Active 32 DOM
7. 2026-06-12
   days on market $67,900 Active 31 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $67,900 Active 28 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $67,900 Active 27 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $67,900 Active 26 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $67,900 Active 25 DOM
12. 2026-06-04
    days on market $67,900 Active 22 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $67,900 Active 21 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $67,900 Active 20 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $67,900 Active 19 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $67,900 Active 18 DOM
17. 2026-05-12
    historical

    Show marketing remark (376 chars)

    Brick ranch with lots of potential! This home features 3 bedrooms, 1 full bath, a 1-car attached garage, deck, and fenced yard. Recent updates include a new roof and updated furnace. Previously used as a rental, the home does need some TLC but offers a great opportunity for investors or buyers looking to add their own finishing touches. Call today for your personal showing.

18. 2026-05-12
    listed $69,900 Active 376-char remark

    Show marketing remark (376 chars)

    Brick ranch with lots of potential! This home features 3 bedrooms, 1 full bath, a 1-car attached garage, deck, and fenced yard. Recent updates include a new roof and updated furnace. Previously used as a rental, the home does need some TLC but offers a great opportunity for investors or buyers looking to add their own finishing touches. Call today for your personal showing.

19. 2026-05-12
    listed $69,900 Active

    Show marketing remark (376 chars)

    Brick ranch with lots of potential! This home features 3 bedrooms, 1 full bath, a 1-car attached garage, deck, and fenced yard. Recent updates include a new roof and updated furnace. Previously used as a rental, the home does need some TLC but offers a great opportunity for investors or buyers looking to add their own finishing touches. Call today for your personal showing.

20. 2026-05-05
    listed $69,900 Active
21. 2026-05-05
    listed $69,900 Active
22. 2026-05-05
    historical
23. 2026-04-02
    listed $78,900 Active
24. 2026-04-02
    listed $78,900 Active
25. 2026-04-02
    historical
26. 2026-04-02
    historical
27. 2026-03-02
    listed $78,900 Active
28. 2026-03-02
    historical
29. 2026-03-02
    historical
30. 2026-03-01
    listed $78,900 Active
31. 2026-01-04
    price $78,900
32. 2026-01-04
    price $78,900
33. 2025-08-02
    listed $82,900 Active
34. 2025-08-01
    listed $82,900 Active
35. 2025-07-29
    historical
36. 2025-07-29
    historical
37. 2025-06-03
    price $85,900
38. 2025-06-02
    price $85,900
39. 2025-03-27
    price $89,900
40. 2025-03-26
    price $89,900
41. 2025-02-19
    listed $675,000 Active
42. 2025-02-19
    listed $675,000 Active
43. 2016-06-01
    soldstatus $28,500 Sold
44. 2016-06-01
    soldstatus $28,500 Closed
45. 2016-05-11
    historical
46. 2016-05-07
    status Pending
47. 2016-05-07
    status Pending
48. 2016-04-22
    listed $31,000 Active
49. 2016-03-29
    listed $31,000 Active
50. 2016-02-01
    historical

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MI · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $447 · $37/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $747 · $62/mo
• Expected delta: +$299/yr (+$25/mo · 66.9%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥99°F today · 14 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $11,532
• − Mortgage interest: −$3,803
• − Property taxes: −$447
• − Insurance: −$340
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$923
• − Management: −$923
• − Depreciation: −$1,975
• Taxable income: $3,121
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$749
• After-tax cash flow: $3,301/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Bridgeport-Spaulding Community School District
• NCES district ID: 2606780
• Math proficiency: 7% ▼ -4.00%
• Reading proficiency: 17% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $38,403
• Composite: 10.13/100
• National rank: #9800
• State rank: #513 of 540 in MI

Livability — Buena Vista

• Score: 59/100
• State rank: #615
• US rank: #20603

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment F Housing B+ Health & safety C- User ratings C-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Buena Vista, MI
• City population: 32,069
• Population (ZIP): 32,069

Population outlook (Saginaw County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 180,568 people
• By 2030: 172,302 · -4.6%
• By 2040: 153,919 · -14.8%
• By 2050: 135,519 · -24.9%
• By 2075: 97,199 · -46.2%
• By 2100: 65,037 · -64.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.56)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 59% White 27% Hispanic / Latino 12% Two or more races 5%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 10%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 2% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 1% · Canada
• Languages at home: 96% English-only · Spanish 4%

Political lean MEDSL · Saginaw

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 47.7% · R 51.0% · Other 1.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -20.6pp toward R · 2008: 17.3pp · 2024: -3.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+3.3 2020: D+0.3 2016: R+1.1 2012: D+11.9 2008: D+17.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -93.46%
• Current HPI: 197.3359
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.37%
• F500 in state: 28

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MI)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Automotive Parts	3	$48B
▸Automotive	2	$372B
▸Chemicals	1	$45B
▸Automotive Retail	1	$29B
▸Healthcare / Medical Devices	1	$23B
▸Automotive Technology	1	$20B

Price history

+63.6% since first listed

39 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-27 Price Changed $67,900 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2026-05-27 Price Changed $67,900 REALCOMP
• 2026-05-12 Listing Removed — MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2026-05-12 Listed $69,900 REALCOMP
• 2026-05-12 Listed $69,900 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2026-05-05 Listed $69,900 REALCOMP
• 2026-05-05 Listed $69,900 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2026-05-05 Listing Removed — MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2026-04-02 Listing Removed — REALCOMP
• 2026-04-02 Listing Removed — MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2026-04-02 Listed $78,900 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2026-04-02 Listed $78,900 REALCOMP
• 2026-03-02 Listed $78,900 REALCOMP
• 2026-03-02 Listing Removed — REALCOMP
• 2026-03-02 Listing Removed — MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2026-03-01 Listed $78,900 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2026-01-04 Price Changed $78,900 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2026-01-04 Price Changed $78,900 REALCOMP
• 2025-08-02 Listed $82,900 REALCOMP
• 2025-08-01 Listed $82,900 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2025-07-29 Listing Removed — REALCOMP
• 2025-07-29 Listing Removed — MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2025-06-03 Price Changed $85,900 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2025-06-02 Price Changed $85,900 REALCOMP
• 2025-03-27 Price Changed $89,900 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2025-03-26 Price Changed $89,900 REALCOMP
• 2025-02-19 Listed $675,000 REALCOMP
• 2025-02-19 Listed $675,000 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2016-06-01 Sold (MLS) $28,500 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2016-06-01 Sold (MLS) $28,500 REALCOMP
• 2016-05-11 Listing Removed — REALCOMP
• 2016-05-07 Pending — REALCOMP
• 2016-05-07 Pending — MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2016-04-22 Listed $31,000 REALCOMP
• 2016-03-29 Listed $31,000 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2016-02-01 Listing Removed — REALCOMP
• 2016-02-01 Listing Removed — MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2016-01-07 Listed $41,500 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2015-07-31 Listed $41,500 REALCOMP

Property tax history

-9.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $447 · -80.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.