201 W Noble St

New Deal, TX 79403

$89,500B-

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,064 sqft · Built 1980 · Manufactured · Active · 41 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,297/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$469
• Tax + insurance: −$79
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$272
• Net cashflow: $476/mo
• Annual: $5,716/yr
• Cap rate: 12.68%
• Cash-on-cash: 22.81%
• DSCR: 2.01
• 1% rule: 1.45%
• Cash to close: $25,060

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $90k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $476 ($6k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $90k).
• It's been on market 41 days — a 3% lower offer ($87k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $87k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $619 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 69/100 on livability (#426 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, cost of living A+; Watch: health & safety C-, amenities F, commute F.
• New Deal ISD (rural): math 39% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #368 of 826 in TX (top 45%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: New Deal El (math 32% / reading 37%, grade F, #1,995 of 4,322 statewide, top 50%, 275 students, 73% FRL); New Deal Middle (math 38% / reading 40%, grade F, #690 of 1,662 statewide, top 42%, 235 students, 72% FRL); New Deal H S (math 57% / reading 64%, grade C+, #265 of 1,632 statewide, top 16%, 244 students, 68% FRL) — zoned schools average 71% FRL vs 53% district-wide (18 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.5%/yr); 166 active listings in the ZIP; 2,219 units permitted in Lubbock County in 2024 (252 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Lubbock County population projected at +39% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 1.5% rent growth), your $25k cash investment doubles in ~6 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• This rent runs 32% of the median local income ($48k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 41 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.