201 W Noble St · New Deal, TX 79403

$89,500

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,064 sqft · Manufactured public records · 41 Days on market

Built 1980 0.78 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +9.5/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +3.5/10.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.9/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Welcome to peaceful country living with modern comfort! This beautifully remodeled 3-bedroom, 2-full-bath mobile home sits on a spacious 0.78-acre lot in New Deal, Texas, offering the perfect blend of space, privacy, and affordability Step inside to discover a fresh, updated interior featuring new finishes, and an open, inviting layout designed for comfortable everyday living. The living area flows seamlessly into the kitchen and dining space, creating a warm and welcoming environment for family gatherings and entertaining guest Outside, the nearly three-quarter-acre property gives you room to breathe and endless possibilities—whether you dream of gardening, adding a workshop, parkin

Key facts

• Spacious lot
• Open layout
• Updated interior

Tags

• SPACIOUS LOT
• UPDATED INTERIOR
• OPEN LAYOUT

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Property sits on approximately 0.78 acres

Exterior

• Parking: Additional open parking
• Security: Smoke detector(s)
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Electricity connected; Water connected; Sewer connected
• Home design: Manufactured home; Residential property; Updated/remodeled
• Construction: Metal siding; Vinyl siding; Wood siding; Composition roof; Other foundation; Built in 1,300 above-grade finished area
• Exterior features: RV hookup; Front porch; Gravel road access

Interior

• Kitchen: Electric range
• Flooring: Carpet; Laminate
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric); Central air conditioning (electric)
• Interior features: Breakfast bar; Built-in features; Smoke detector(s)
• Laundry & utility: Washer hookup on main level; Electric dryer hookup on main level

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $90k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $476 ($6k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $90k).
• Recommended offer: $87k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 69/100 on livability (#426 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, cost of living A+; Watch: health & safety C-, amenities F, commute F.
• New Deal ISD (rural): math 39% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #368 of 826 in TX (top 45%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: New Deal El (math 32% / reading 37%, grade F, #1,995 of 4,322 statewide, top 50%, 275 students, 73% FRL); New Deal Middle (math 38% / reading 40%, grade F, #690 of 1,662 statewide, top 42%, 235 students, 72% FRL); New Deal H S (math 57% / reading 64%, grade C+, #265 of 1,632 statewide, top 16%, 244 students, 68% FRL) — zoned schools average 71% FRL vs 53% district-wide (18 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.5%/yr); 166 active listings in the ZIP; 2,219 units permitted in Lubbock County in 2024 (252 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 32% of the median local income ($48k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $619 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Lubbock County population projected at +39% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 1.5% rent growth), your $25k cash investment doubles in ~6 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 41 days — a 3% lower offer ($87k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $86,815 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 41 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
4. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
5. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.45% ✓
• Cap rate: 12.68%
• Cash-on-cash: 22.81%
• DSCR: 2.01
• GRM: 5.7

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.52% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 14.1%
• Equity multiple: 1.55×
• Total profit: $13,906
• Equity at exit: $13,345

10-year hold

• IRR: 21.8%
• Equity multiple: 2.74×
• Total profit: $43,493
• Equity at exit: $7,738

Cash invested: $25,060 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 79403

• Home prices YoY: -9.0%
• Rents YoY: 1.5%
• Active inventory: 166
• Price-to-rent: 5.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,297 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$469
• Tax from tax record: −$42 /mo · $503/yr
• Insurance: −$37
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$272
• Net cashflow: $476

Break-even live

Break-even rent $694

Max offer price $89,500

Occupancy floor 58%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $527	-5% $502	+0% $476	+5% $451	+10% $426
Rent	-10% $374	-5% $425	+0% $476	+5% $528	+10% $579
Rate	-1.0pp $521	-0.5pp $499	base $476	+0.5pp $453	+1.0pp $430

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $22,375
• Closing costs: $2,685
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 19 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $89,500 Active 41 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $89,500 Active 38 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $89,500 Active 37 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $89,500 Active 36 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $89,500 Active 35 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $89,500 Active 33 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $89,500 Active 32 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $89,500 Active 30 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $89,500 Active 29 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $89,500 Active 28 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $89,500 Active 27 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $89,500 Active 23 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $89,500 Active 22 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $89,500 Active 21 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $89,500 Active 20 DOM
16. 2026-05-30
    days on market $89,500 Active 19 DOM
17. 2026-05-11
    listed $89,500 Active 1090-char remark
18. 2023-10-27
    soldstatus
19. 1993-06-01
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $503 · $42/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,638 · $136/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,135/yr (+$95/mo · 225.8%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥99°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 100% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $15,567
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,013
• − Property taxes: −$503
• − Insurance: −$448
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,245
• − Management: −$1,245
• − Depreciation: −$2,604
• Taxable income: $4,509
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,082
• After-tax cash flow: $4,633/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: New Deal ISD
• NCES district ID: 4832430
• Math proficiency: 39% ▼ -3.00%
• Reading proficiency: 43% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $48,346
• Composite: 35.15/100
• National rank: #5009
• State rank: #368 of 826 in TX

Livability — New Deal

• Score: 69/100
• State rank: #426
• US rank: #8833

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing C+ Health & safety C- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: New Deal, TX
• County: Lubbock County · 293,542 people
• Metro: Lubbock, TX
• Population (ZIP): 16,089
• Household income: $47,907
• Rent vs Own: 39.7% rent · 60.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 612.0

Population outlook (Lubbock County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 345,960 people
• By 2030: 371,449 · +7.4%
• By 2040: 424,539 · +22.7%
• By 2050: 481,150 · +39.1%
• By 2075: 633,467 · +83.1%
• By 2100: 746,853 · +115.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.64)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 49% White 26% Black 23% Two or more races 16% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 35%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada
• Languages at home: 74% English-only · Spanish 25%

Political lean MEDSL · Lubbock

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+39.5) · D 29.7% · R 69.2% · Other 1.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -2.8pp toward R · 2008: -36.7pp · 2024: -39.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+39.5 2020: R+32.2 2016: R+38.4 2012: R+40.9 2008: R+36.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -17.69%
• Current HPI: 178.9297
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.52%
• Metro: Lubbock, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-11 Listed $89,500 LARMLS
• 2023-10-27 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 1993-06-01 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

-8.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $503 · +1.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.