79 Stern Scenic Dr

Unionville, NY 10940

$134,999B

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,500 sqft · Built 2009 · Manufactured · Active · 129 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,702/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$708
• Tax + insurance: −$225
• HOA: −$825
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$568
• Net cashflow: $377/mo
• Annual: $4,524/yr
• Cap rate: 9.64%
• Cash-on-cash: 11.97%
• DSCR: 1.53
• 1% rule: 2.00%
• Cash to close: $37,800

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $135k. Condition is rated good.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $377 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $135k).
• It's been on market 129 days — a 12% lower offer ($119k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $119k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $933 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 65/100 on livability (#671 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: cost of living C-, crime D, schools F.
• Minisink Valley Central School District (rural): math 51% / reading 59% proficiency, ranked #254 of 590 in NY (top 43%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 17% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Watch-outs: HOA is 31% of rent.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+8.2%/yr); 273 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 1,746 units permitted in Orange County in 2024 (1,265 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 8.0% rent growth), your $38k cash investment doubles in ~6 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Cap rate 9.6% vs local median 2.0% in Unionville — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• This rent runs 37% of the median local income ($87k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 129 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.