79 Stern Scenic Dr · Unionville, NY 10940

$134,999

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,500 sqft · Manufactured · 129 Days on market

Built 2009 Good condition $825/mo HOA · 31% of rent ↓ 4% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +27.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +9.3/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +5.0/10.0
• Rent growth +4.6/5.0
• Condition / age +3.8/5.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Welcome to this updated 3-bedroom, 2-bath double-wide mobile home offering comfort, space, and convenience in Middletown. Recent updates enhance both style and functionality, while the open and spacious layout provides plenty of room to relax or entertain. The primary bedroom features a private bath, and the additional bedrooms are generously sized. Conveniently located near local shopping, dining, and major highways, this home offers easy commuting and everyday accessibility. A great opportunity for affordable living with modern touches in a prime location.

Key facts

• Built 2009
• Listed 129 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $135k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $377 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $135k).
• Recommended offer: $119k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 9.6% vs local median 2.0% in Unionville — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 65/100 on livability (#671 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: cost of living C-, crime D, schools F.
• Minisink Valley Central School District (rural): math 51% / reading 59% proficiency, ranked #254 of 590 in NY (top 43%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 17% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+8.2%/yr); 273 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 1,746 units permitted in Orange County in 2024 (1,265 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 37% of the median local income ($87k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $933 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 8.0% rent growth), your $38k cash investment doubles in ~6 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 129 days — a 12% lower offer ($119k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: HOA is 31% of rent.

Recommended offer $118,799 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 129 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.00% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.64%
• Cash-on-cash: 11.97%
• DSCR: 1.53
• GRM: 4.2

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 8.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 10.4%
• Equity multiple: 1.45×
• Total profit: $16,967
• Equity at exit: $20,129

10-year hold

• IRR: 25.0%
• Equity multiple: 3.99×
• Total profit: $112,923
• Equity at exit: $11,672

Cash invested: $37,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 10940

• Home prices YoY: -18.7%
• Rents YoY: 8.2%
• Active inventory: 273
• Price-to-rent: 4.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,702 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$708
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$169 /mo · $2,025/yr
• Insurance: −$56
• HOA: −$825
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$568
• Net cashflow: $377

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,225

Max offer price $134,999

Occupancy floor 81%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $33,750
• Closing costs: $4,050
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $825 · $9,900/yr

Listing history 17 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $134,999 Active 129 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $134,999 Active 128 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $134,999 Active 127 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $134,999 Active 126 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $134,999 Active 124 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $134,999 Active 123 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $134,999 Active 121 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $134,999 Active 120 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $134,999 Active 119 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $134,999 Active 118 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $134,999 Active 114 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $134,999 Active 113 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $134,999 Active 112 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $134,999 Active 111 DOM
15. 2026-05-30
    days on market $134,999 Active 110 DOM
16. 2026-04-13
    price $143,999 564-char remark

    Show marketing remark (564 chars)

    Welcome to this updated 3-bedroom, 2-bath double-wide mobile home offering comfort, space, and convenience in Middletown. Recent updates enhance both style and functionality, while the open and spacious layout provides plenty of room to relax or entertain. The primary bedroom features a private bath, and the additional bedrooms are generously sized. Conveniently located near local shopping, dining, and major highways, this home offers easy commuting and everyday accessibility. A great opportunity for affordable living with modern touches in a prime location.

17. 2026-02-09
    listed $150,000 Active 564-char remark

    Show marketing remark (564 chars)

    Welcome to this updated 3-bedroom, 2-bath double-wide mobile home offering comfort, space, and convenience in Middletown. Recent updates enhance both style and functionality, while the open and spacious layout provides plenty of room to relax or entertain. The primary bedroom features a private bath, and the additional bedrooms are generously sized. Conveniently located near local shopping, dining, and major highways, this home offers easy commuting and everyday accessibility. A great opportunity for affordable living with modern touches in a prime location.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥99°F today · 14 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 3/10 Moderate 9% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $32,430
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,562
• − Property taxes: −$2,025
• − Insurance: −$675
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,594
• − Management: −$2,594
• − HOA: −$9,900
• − Depreciation: −$3,927
• Taxable income: $3,152
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$756
• After-tax cash flow: $3,768/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Good 75/100 Cosmetic rehab

This updated 3-bedroom, 2-bath double-wide mobile home is in good condition with recent updates and a good location. It is ready for move-in and would benefit from landscaping and exterior paint to further enhance its curb appeal and value.

Value-add opportunities

• Both landscaping — improves curb appeal and rental value
• Both exterior paint — enhances curb appeal and resale value

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both landscaping — improves curb appeal and rental value ↑
• Both exterior paint — enhances curb appeal and resale value ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Minisink Valley Central School District
• NCES district ID: 3619560
• Math proficiency: 51% ▼ -5.00%
• Reading proficiency: 59% ▲ 5.00%
• Median HH income: $84,292
• Composite: 50.18/100
• National rank: #1897
• State rank: #254 of 590 in NY

Livability — Unionville

• Score: 65/100
• State rank: #671
• US rank: #12559

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living C- Crime D Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Orange County · 267,004 people
• City population: 68,033
• Metro: Poughkeepsie-Newburgh-Middletown, NY
• Population (ZIP): 53,611
• Household income: $87,080
• Rent vs Own: 38.4% rent · 61.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 1846.0

Population outlook (Orange County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 379,830 people
• By 2030: 378,955 · -0.2%
• By 2040: 375,444 · -1.2%
• By 2050: 369,311 · -2.8%
• By 2075: 354,233 · -6.7%
• By 2100: 318,150 · -16.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Highly diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.70)
• Race & ethnicity: White 39% Hispanic / Latino 32% Black 20% Two or more races 13% Asian 4% Native American 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 9% Puerto Rican 13% Dominican 3%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 3% Italian 1% Iranian 1%
• Foreign-born: 18% · Canada, China, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 72% English-only · Spanish 21% Other Indo-European 2% Chinese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Orange

• 2024 margin: Lean R (+8.4) · D 45.8% · R 54.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -12.5pp toward R · 2008: 4.1pp · 2024: -8.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+8.4 2020: R+0.2 2016: R+6.5 2012: D+5.2 2008: D+4.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -71.68%
• Current HPI: 311.5969
• Rent YoY: ▲ 8.23%
• Metro: Poughkeepsie-Newburgh-Middletown, NY
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

-4.0% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-13 Price Changed $143,999 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-02-09 Listed $150,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid