118 S Orchard St

Watertown, NY 13601

$84,900B

5 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,560 sqft · Built 1900 · SingleFamily · Active · 71 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,864/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$445
• Tax + insurance: −$149
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$391
• Net cashflow: $878/mo
• Annual: $10,536/yr
• Cap rate: 18.70%
• Cash-on-cash: 44.32%
• DSCR: 2.97
• 1% rule: 2.19%
• Cash to close: $23,772

Investor read

• This is a 5-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $85k. Condition is rated fair.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $878 ($11k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $85k).
• It's been on market 71 days — a 6% lower offer ($80k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $80k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $587 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 68/100 on livability (#540 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: health & safety A+, cost of living A-, housing A-; Watch: amenities C-, crime F, commute F.
• Watertown City School District (urban): math 34% / reading 54% proficiency, ranked #481 of 590 in NY (top 82%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Sherman School (math 42% / reading 52%, grade D-, #1,195 of 2,108 statewide, top 60%, 320 students, 57% FRL); Case Middle School (math 17% / reading 41%, grade F, #566 of 729 statewide, top 78%, 626 students, 70% FRL); Watertown Senior High School (math 89% / reading 92%, grade A+, #231 of 1,100 statewide, top 21%, 1,083 students, 65% FRL).
• Watch-outs: built in 1900 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+10.0%/yr); 333 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 196 units permitted in Jefferson County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Jefferson County population projected at -12% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 8.0% rent growth), your $24k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Cap rate 18.7% vs local median 6.1% in Watertown — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• This rent runs 38% of the median local income ($59k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 71 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
• Built in 1900 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.

Repairs flagged (vision-AI assessment)

• Minor: Painting — The exterior siding appears to be in need of touch-up painting.
• Minor: Landscaping — The yard appears overgrown and could benefit from trimming and planting.