118 S Orchard St · Watertown, NY 13601

$84,900

5 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,560 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 25 Days on market

Built 1900 Fair condition 3,640 sqft lot $54/sqft · 61% below area ↓ 32% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +5.6/10.0
• Rent growth +5.0/5.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Condition / age +2.2/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Opportunity awaits with this extremely spacious single-family home. This has been a rental for years, now awaiting your vision. A good cleaning, new paint and flooring will be enough to bring this property back to life to fit the needs of a larger family. The first floor features a functional layout including one bedroom (or family room), a half bath with laundry hookups (which could be swapped out to add a tub/shower), a living room, formal dining room, and a galley-style kitchen. There is a room off the kitchen and back entrance that could be used as a mudroom, office or laundry room. The second floor provides four additional bedrooms and a full bathroom, offering ample living space.

Key facts

• Back deck
• Functional layout
• Galley style kitchen

Tags

• FUNCTIONAL LAYOUT
• GALLEY STYLE KITCHEN
• BACK DECK
• FULLY FENCED YARD
• CLOSE PROXIMITY TO SHOPPING
• EASY ACCESS TO FORT DRUM

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 5-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $85k. Condition is rated fair.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $960 ($12k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $85k).
• Recommended offer: $84k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 19.9% vs local median 6.1% in Watertown — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 68/100 on livability (#540 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: health & safety A+, cost of living A-, housing A-; Watch: amenities C-, crime F, commute F.
• Watertown City School District (urban): math 34% / reading 54% proficiency, ranked #481 of 590 in NY (top 82%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Sherman School (math 42% / reading 52%, grade D-, #1,195 of 2,108 statewide, top 60%, 320 students, 57% FRL); Case Middle School (math 17% / reading 41%, grade F, #566 of 729 statewide, top 78%, 626 students, 70% FRL); Watertown Senior High School (math 89% / reading 92%, grade A+, #231 of 1,100 statewide, top 21%, 1,083 students, 65% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+10.0%/yr); 294 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 196 units permitted in Jefferson County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 40% of the median local income ($59k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $587 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Jefferson County population projected at -12% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 8.0% rent growth), your $24k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 25 days — a 2% lower offer ($84k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1900 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $83,626 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
2. Built in 1900 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.32% ✓
• Cap rate: 19.87%
• Cash-on-cash: 48.48%
• DSCR: 3.16
• GRM: 3.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $215,396
• List price: $84,900
• Delta: -48.98%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 8 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
406 Stone St	0.05mi	5/2.0	1,655 (+6%)	6mo	$206,900	$125	78
427 W Mullin St	0.29mi	4/1.5 (-1)	1,462 (-6%)	6mo	$219,000	$150	64
148 N Meadow St	0.16mi	4/2.0 (-1)	1,674 (+7%)	14mo	$155,000	$93	60
610 Cooper St	0.72mi	4/1.0 (-1)	1,603 (+3%)	0mo	$190,000	$119	57
410 Coffeen St	0.29mi	4/2.0 (-1)	1,720 (+10%)	14mo	$212,500	$124	48
160 Breen Ave	0.35mi	4/3.0 (-1)	1,344 (-14%)	0mo	$199,900	$149	47
419 Gotham St	0.65mi	4/1.5 (-1)	1,697 (+9%)	2mo	$210,000	$124	47
307 W Lynde St	0.61mi	4/2.5 (-1)	1,768 (+13%)	20mo	$189,900	$107	21

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 8.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 51.6%
• Equity multiple: 3.43×
• Total profit: $57,851
• Equity at exit: $12,659

10-year hold

• IRR: 59.0%
• Equity multiple: 8.43×
• Total profit: $176,622
• Equity at exit: $7,341

Cash invested: $23,772 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Buyer's market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 15 active · 16 under contract
• Months of supply: 6.4 mo (16%/mo absorbed)
• Median asking: $192,900 ($112/sqft)
• Median days on market: 59 d
• This list price: 7% of active listings are priced below it
• ARV vs active asking: +22.8% above current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 13601

• Home prices YoY: -5.6%
• Rents YoY: 10.0%
• Active inventory: 294
• Price-to-rent: 3.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,968 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$445
• Tax from tax record: −$114 /mo · $1,364/yr
• Insurance: −$35
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$413
• Net cashflow: $960

Break-even live

Break-even rent $752

Max offer price $84,900

Occupancy floor 46%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $1,009	-5% $985	+0% $960	+5% $936	+10% $912
Rent	-10% $805	-5% $883	+0% $960	+5% $1,038	+10% $1,116
Rate	-1.0pp $1,003	-0.5pp $982	base $960	+0.5pp $938	+1.0pp $916

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $21,225
• Closing costs: $2,547
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
207 Wealtha Ave Watertown, NY	2.0–4.0	1.0–2.5	1435	$1,695	$1.18	93d	9	0.92mi

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: No garage
• Utilities: Public water connectedSewer connected
• Home design: Two-story propertyExisting construction
• Construction: Vinyl sidingAsphalt roofStone foundation
• Exterior features: Blacktop drivewayCity street frontageRectangular residential lot

Interior

• Kitchen: Gas ovenGas rangeRefrigerator
• Bedrooms: One main-level bedroom
• Flooring: CarpetHardwoodVaries
• Bathrooms: One full bathroomOne half bathroomOne main-level bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Gas forced-air heating
• Interior features: Galley kitchenBedroom on main levelWalk-out basement accessSee remarks / other
• Laundry & utility: Main-level laundry

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-08-08
   days on market $84,900 Active 25 DOM
2. 2026-08-07
   days on market $84,900 Active 24 DOM
3. 2026-08-06
   days on market $84,900 Active 23 DOM
4. 2026-08-05
   days on market $84,900 Active 22 DOM
5. 2026-08-04
   days on market $84,900 Active 21 DOM
6. 2026-08-03
   days on market $84,900 Active 20 DOM
7. 2026-07-31
   days on market $84,900 Active 17 DOM
8. 2026-07-30
   days on market $84,900 Active 16 DOM
9. 2026-07-29
   days on market $84,900 Active 15 DOM
10. 2026-07-27
    days on market $84,900 Active 13 DOM
11. 2026-07-25
    days on market $84,900 Active 11 DOM
12. 2026-07-23
    days on market $84,900 Active 9 DOM
13. 2026-07-22
    days on market $84,900 Active 8 DOM
14. 2026-07-21
    days on market $84,900 Active 7 DOM
15. 2026-07-18
    days on market $84,900 Active 4 DOM
16. 2026-07-16
    days on market $84,900 Active 2 DOM
17. 2026-07-14
    remarks 699-char remark
18. 2026-07-14
    pricedays on marketlisting id $84,900 Active 1 DOM
19. 2026-07-13
    days on market $109,900 Active 70 DOM
20. 2026-07-12
    days on market $109,900 Active 69 DOM
21. 2026-07-11
    days on market $109,900 Active 68 DOM
22. 2026-07-10
    days on market $109,900 Active 67 DOM
23. 2026-07-09
    days on market $109,900 Active 66 DOM
24. 2026-07-08
    days on market $109,900 Active 65 DOM
25. 2026-07-07
    days on market $109,900 Active 64 DOM
26. 2026-07-06
    days on market $109,900 Active 63 DOM
27. 2026-07-05
    days on market $109,900 Active 62 DOM
28. 2026-07-04
    days on market $109,900 Active 61 DOM
29. 2026-07-03
    days on market $109,900 Active 60 DOM
30. 2026-07-02
    days on market $109,900 Active 59 DOM
31. 2026-07-01
    days on market $109,900 Active 58 DOM
32. 2026-06-30
    days on market $109,900 Active 57 DOM
33. 2026-06-29
    days on market $109,900 Active 56 DOM
34. 2026-06-28
    days on market $109,900 Active 55 DOM
35. 2026-06-27
    days on market $109,900 Active 54 DOM
36. 2026-06-26
    pricedays on market $109,900 Active 52 DOM
37. 2026-06-22
    days on market $119,900 Active 49 DOM
38. 2026-06-21
    days on market $119,900 Active 48 DOM
39. 2026-06-19
    days on market $119,900 Active 46 DOM
40. 2026-06-18
    days on market $119,900 Active 45 DOM
41. 2026-06-17
    days on market $119,900 Active 44 DOM
42. 2026-06-16
    days on market $119,900 Active 43 DOM
43. 2026-06-15
    days on market $119,900 Active 42 DOM
44. 2026-06-14
    days on market $119,900 Active 40 DOM
45. 2026-06-12
    days on market $119,900 Active 39 DOM
46. 2026-06-09
    days on market $119,900 Active 36 DOM
47. 2026-06-08
    days on market $119,900 Active 35 DOM
48. 2026-06-07
    days on market $119,900 Active 34 DOM
49. 2026-06-05
    days on market $119,900 Active 31 DOM
50. 2026-06-03
    days on market $119,900 Active 30 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $1,364 · $114/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,399 · $117/mo
• Expected delta: +$36/yr (+$3/mo · 2.6%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥91°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low 0% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $23,616
• − Mortgage interest: −$4,756
• − Property taxes: −$1,364
• − Insurance: −$424
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,889
• − Management: −$1,889
• − Depreciation: −$2,470
• Taxable income: $10,824
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,598
• After-tax cash flow: $8,928/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 3 photos

Fair 45/100 Moderate rehab Est. rehab $39,000–$70,200 screening

This single-family home requires moderate repairs and maintenance, including painting and landscaping, to improve its curb appeal and functionality. Upgrading the kitchen and bathrooms, re-roofing, and rehabilitating the foundation would significantly increase its resale and rental value.

Deferred maintenance Est. $40,000–$120,000 screening

• Major Roof (roof) — Significant damage to the roof is visible, with missing shingles and exposed structure.
• Major Windows (windows) — The windows appear to be in poor condition, with some frames damaged and possibly missing glass.
• Major Electrical (electrical) — The electrical panel is exposed and appears to be in a state of disrepair, indicating a need for immediate attention.
• Major Exterior (exterior) — The exterior siding is peeling and damaged, requiring extensive repairs.

Repairs flagged

• Minor Painting — The exterior siding appears to be in need of touch-up painting.
• Minor Landscaping — The yard appears overgrown and could benefit from trimming and planting.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting the exterior and landscaping — Both actions will improve the home's curb appeal and make it more attractive to potential buyers or renters. ↑
• Both Updating the kitchen and bathrooms — These updates will increase the home's functionality and appeal to a broader range of buyers and renters. ↑
• Both Re-roofing — A new roof will protect the home from water damage and improve its overall appearance. ↑
• Both Rehabilitating the foundation — A stable foundation is crucial for the home's structural integrity and will prevent future issues. ↑

ⓘ Rehab cost is a screening estimate — Moderate scope × the home's square footage at US $/sqft rules of thumb (the same model as the Flip Finder). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting.

D Composite school gradezoned avg 56/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Sherman School D- NY #1,195/2,108 Nat'l #14,504/41,679 Middle Case Middle School F NY #566/729 Nat'l #9,290/14,009 High Watertown Senior High School A+ NY #231/1,100 Nat'l #375/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Watertown City School District
• NCES district ID: 3630120
• Math proficiency: 34% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 54% ▲ 12.00%
• Median HH income: $40,919
• Composite: 36.86/100
• National rank: #4551
• State rank: #481 of 590 in NY

C Composite livability gradescore 68/100

Livability — Watertown

• Score: 68/100
• State rank: #540
• US rank: #9700

Category grades

Amenities C- Commute F Cost of living A- Crime F Employment D- Housing A- Health & safety A+ User ratings C

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Watertown, NY
• County: Jefferson County · 111,748 people
• City population: 36,839
• Metro: Watertown-Fort Drum, NY
• Population (ZIP): 36,839
• Household income: $58,791
• Rent vs Own: 51.4% rent · 48.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 12% of renters

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Population outlook (Jefferson County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 111,748 people
• By 2030: 109,370 · -2.1%
• By 2040: 103,828 · -7.1%
• By 2050: 98,523 · -11.8%
• By 2075: 91,422 · -18.2%
• By 2100: 78,214 · -30.0%

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Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (82%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 82% Two or more races 7% Hispanic / Latino 6% Black 4% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 2%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 7% Romanian 3% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada
• Languages at home: 94% English-only · Spanish 3% Other Indo-European 1% German/W. Germanic 1%

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Political lean MEDSL · Jefferson

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+23.6) · D 38.2% · R 61.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: -18.3pp toward R · 2008: -5.3pp · 2024: -23.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+23.6 2020: R+19.0 2016: R+22.4 2012: R+2.9 2008: R+5.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -18.86%
• Current HPI: 316.636
• Rent YoY: ▲ 9.96%
• Metro: Watertown-Fort Drum, NY
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

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Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: No garage
• Utilities: Public water connectedSewer connected
• Home design: Two-story propertyExisting construction
• Construction: Vinyl sidingAsphalt roofStone foundation
• Exterior features: Blacktop drivewayCity street frontageRectangular residential lot

Interior

• Kitchen: Gas ovenGas rangeRefrigerator
• Bedrooms: One main-level bedroom
• Flooring: CarpetHardwoodVaries
• Bathrooms: One full bathroomOne half bathroomOne main-level bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Gas forced-air heating
• Interior features: Galley kitchenBedroom on main levelWalk-out basement accessSee remarks / other
• Laundry & utility: Main-level laundry

Price history

-32.0% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-07-14 Listed $84,900 CNYIS
• 2026-07-13 Listing Removed — CNYIS
• 2026-06-24 Price Changed $109,900 CNYIS
• 2026-05-19 Price Changed $119,900 CNYIS
• 2026-05-04 Listed $124,900 CNYIS

Property tax history

+18.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,364 · +3.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.