3528 Wilson Creek Rd

Newark Valley, NY 13736

$74,900B+

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 980 sqft · Built 1974 · Manufactured · Pending · 22 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,160/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$393
• Tax + insurance: −$211
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$244
• Net cashflow: $313/mo
• Annual: $3,755/yr
• Cap rate: 12.37%
• Cash-on-cash: 21.71%
• DSCR: 1.97
• 1% rule: 1.55%
• Cash to close: $20,972

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath manufactured listed at $75k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $313 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $75k).
• It's been on market 22 days — a 2% lower offer ($74k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $74k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• In year one you build about $8k of equity ($518 loan paydown + $7k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 70/100 on livability (#462 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, employment B; Watch: health & safety D, crime F, amenities F.
• Newark Valley Central School District (rural): math 37% / reading 51% proficiency, ranked #466 of 590 in NY (top 79%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Nathan T Hall School (math 37% / reading 47%, grade F, #1,361 of 2,108 statewide, top 67%, 322 students, 50% FRL).
• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $66/mo.
• Market conditions: 11 active listings in the ZIP; 139 units permitted in Tioga County in 2024 (65 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Tioga County population projected at -27% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 3 sale attempts since 4y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $37k; list at $75k implies a 102% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $21k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 5, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$37k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe flood risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Questions for listing agent

• Built in 1974 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.