3528 Wilson Creek Rd · Newark Valley, NY 13736

$74,900

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 980 sqft · Manufactured public records · 22 Days on market

Built 1974 0.39 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +3.8/10.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

Move right in and relax in this open floor plan 2 (for a MH check the sizes) bedroom, 1 bath, mobile home with 2 decks, a bonus room and expanded living room also a detached garage with electric.

Key facts

• Water pump
• Well pressure tank
• Propane stove

Tags

• VINYL PLANK FLOORING
• NEW HOT WATER HEATER
• WATER PUMP
• WELL PRESSURE TANK
• PROPANE STOVE
• SLIDING DOORS

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Detached garage with garage door opener (1 garage space)
• Utilities: Well water; Septic tank; Cable available
• Home design: Manufactured home (single wide); Residential property
• Construction: Wood siding; Foundation: see remarks; Above-grade finished area listed (no interior square footage included here)
• Exterior features: Deck; Shed(s); Lot is level to sloped down

Interior

• Kitchen: Range; Free-Standing Range; Refrigerator; Dishwasher not listed
• Flooring: Carpet; Vinyl
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating; Ceiling fan(s) for cooling
• Interior features: Fireplace in the living room (propane/gas); Range, Free-Standing Range, Refrigerator; Electric Water Heater
• Laundry & utility: Washer; Dryer; Electric dryer hookup

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath manufactured listed at $75k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $313 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $75k).
• Recommended offer: $74k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 70/100 on livability (#462 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, employment B; Watch: health & safety D, crime F, amenities F.
• Newark Valley Central School District (rural): math 37% / reading 51% proficiency, ranked #466 of 590 in NY (top 79%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Nathan T Hall School (math 37% / reading 47%, grade F, #1,361 of 2,108 statewide, top 67%, 322 students, 50% FRL).
• Market conditions: 11 active listings in the ZIP; 139 units permitted in Tioga County in 2024 (65 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $8k of equity ($518 loan paydown + $7k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Tioga County population projected at -27% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $21k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 5, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$37k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 22 days — a 2% lower offer ($74k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 4y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $37k; list at $75k implies a 102% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $66/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe flood risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $73,776 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1974 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.55% ✓
• Cap rate: 12.37%
• Cash-on-cash: 21.71%
• DSCR: 1.97
• GRM: 5.4

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 37.6%
• Equity multiple: 3.90×
• Total profit: $60,792
• Equity at exit: $67,476

10-year hold

• IRR: 32.4%
• Equity multiple: 8.80×
• Total profit: $163,489
• Equity at exit: $145,514

Cash invested: $20,972 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 13736

• Home prices YoY: 3.5%
• Active inventory: 11
• Price-to-rent: 5.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,160 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$393
• Tax from tax record: −$113 /mo · $1,357/yr
• Insurance: −$31
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$66 /mo · $798/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$244
• Net cashflow: $313

Break-even live

Break-even rent $764

Max offer price $74,900

Occupancy floor 68%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $18,725
• Closing costs: $2,247
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 25 events

1. 2026-06-18
   status $74,900 Pending 22 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $74,900 Active 22 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $74,900 Active 21 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $74,900 Active 20 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $74,900 Active 19 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $74,900 Active 17 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $74,900 Active 16 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $74,900 Active 14 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $74,900 Active 13 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $74,900 Active 12 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $74,900 Active 11 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $74,900 Active 7 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $74,900 Active 6 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $74,900 Active 5 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $74,900 Active 4 DOM
16. 2026-05-30
    days on market $74,900 Active 3 DOM
17. 2026-05-28
    listed $74,900 Active
18. 2022-12-21
    soldstatus $37,000 Closed 195-char remark

    Show marketing remark (195 chars)

    Move right in and relax in this open floor plan 2 (for a MH check the sizes) bedroom, 1 bath, mobile home with 2 decks, a bonus room and expanded living room also a detached garage with electric.

19. 2022-11-18
    status Pending 195-char remark

    Show marketing remark (195 chars)

    Move right in and relax in this open floor plan 2 (for a MH check the sizes) bedroom, 1 bath, mobile home with 2 decks, a bonus room and expanded living room also a detached garage with electric.

20. 2022-11-09
    listed $47,500 Active 195-char remark

    Show marketing remark (195 chars)

    Move right in and relax in this open floor plan 2 (for a MH check the sizes) bedroom, 1 bath, mobile home with 2 decks, a bonus room and expanded living room also a detached garage with electric.

21. 2022-10-20
    price $49,999
22. 2022-09-21
    price $55,000
23. 2022-09-02
    listed $65,000 Active
24. 2010-05-11
    soldstatus $45,000
25. 2006-07-24
    soldstatus $18,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $1,357 · $113/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,357 · $113/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · -0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 8/10 Severe FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 99% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥93°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 100% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $13,920
• − Mortgage interest: −$4,196
• − Property taxes: −$1,357
• − Insurance: −$1,172
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,114
• − Management: −$1,114
• − Depreciation: −$2,179
• Taxable income: $2,790
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$670
• After-tax cash flow: $3,085/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Newark Valley Central School District
• NCES district ID: 3620670
• Math proficiency: 37% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 51% ▲ 9.00%
• Median HH income: $53,770
• Composite: 38.12/100
• National rank: #4273
• State rank: #466 of 590 in NY

Livability — Newark Valley

• Score: 70/100
• State rank: #462
• US rank: #8031

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment B Housing A+ Health & safety D User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 1,887

Population outlook (Tioga County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 45,155 people
• By 2030: 42,801 · -5.2%
• By 2040: 37,960 · -15.9%
• By 2050: 33,071 · -26.8%
• By 2075: 24,144 · -46.5%
• By 2100: 16,545 · -63.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (95%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 95% Two or more races 3% Hispanic / Latino 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 4% Slovak 3% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 1%
• Languages at home: 98% English-only · Spanish 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Tioga

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+22.9) · D 38.6% · R 61.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -12.7pp toward R · 2008: -10.2pp · 2024: -22.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+22.9 2020: R+20.6 2016: R+27.6 2012: R+15.1 2008: R+10.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 10.36%
• Current HPI: 304.4569
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+316.1% since first listed

9 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-28 Listed $74,900 GBAOR
• 2022-12-21 Sold (MLS) $37,000 GBAOR
• 2022-11-18 Pending — GBAOR
• 2022-11-09 Listed $47,500 GBAOR
• 2022-10-20 Price Changed $49,999 GBAOR
• 2022-09-21 Price Changed $55,000 GBAOR
• 2022-09-02 Listed $65,000 GBAOR
• 2010-05-11 Sold (Public Records) $45,000 Public Records
• 2006-07-24 Sold (Public Records) $18,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+9.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,357 · +3.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.