644 Burlina Rd

La Marque, TX 77568

$275,990D

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,716 sqft · Built 2025 · SingleFamily · Pending · 33 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,491/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,449
• Tax + insurance: −$460
• HOA: −$64
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$523
• Net cashflow: $-5/mo
• Annual: $-61/yr
• Cap rate: 6.27%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.08%
• DSCR: 1.00
• 1% rule: 0.90%
• Cash to close: $77,357

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $276k. Condition is rated good.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-5 ($-61/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $276k (0.2% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $249k (9.7% below list).
• It's been on market 33 days — a 3% lower offer ($268k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $249k (9.7% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 59/100 on livability (#1,136 in TX) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment D, crime F, amenities F.
• Hitchcock ISD (suburban): math 28% / reading 31% proficiency, ranked #628 of 826 in TX (top 76%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 72% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Hitchcock Pri (453 students, 85% FRL); Crosby Middle (math 25% / reading 33%, grade F, #1,103 of 1,662 statewide, top 67%, 410 students, 84% FRL); Hitchcock H S (math 47% / reading 47%, grade D-, #591 of 1,632 statewide, top 38%, 470 students, 77% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+4.0%/yr); 661 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 3,258 units permitted in Galveston County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Galveston County population projected at +43% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• This rent runs 40% of the median local income ($75k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 33 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 10% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.