644 Burlina Rd · La Marque, TX 77568

$275,990

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,716 sqft · SingleFamily · 33 Days on market

Built 2025 Good condition $64/mo HOA · 3% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +13.2/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +4.0/10.0
• DSCR +4.0/10.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Rent growth +3.5/5.0
• Livability +3.0/5.0
• Schools +2.6/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

NEW! Lennar Oxford Plan with Elevation J1 in Trails at Woodhaven Lake! This single-level home showcases a spacious open floorplan shared between the kitchen, dining area and family room for easy entertaining. An owner’s suite enjoys a private location in a rear corner of the home, complemented by an en-suite bathroom and walk-in closet. There are three secondary bedrooms at the front of the home, which are comfortable spaces for household members and overnight guests.

Key facts

• Walk-in closet
• Open floorplan
• Secondary bedrooms

Tags

• OPEN FLOORPLAN
• OWNER'S SUITE
• EN-SUITE BATHROOM
• WALK-IN CLOSET
• SECONDARY BEDROOMS

🏗️ New construction. The $275,990 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $276,276.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $276k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-5 ($-61/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $276k (0.2% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $249k (9.7% below list).
• Recommended offer: $249k (9.7% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 59/100 on livability (#1,136 in TX) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment D, crime F, amenities F.
• Hitchcock ISD (suburban): math 28% / reading 31% proficiency, ranked #628 of 826 in TX (top 76%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 72% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Hitchcock Pri (453 students, 85% FRL); Crosby Middle (math 25% / reading 33%, grade F, #1,103 of 1,662 statewide, top 67%, 410 students, 84% FRL); Hitchcock H S (math 47% / reading 47%, grade D-, #591 of 1,632 statewide, top 38%, 470 students, 77% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+4.0%/yr); 661 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 3,258 units permitted in Galveston County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 40% of the median local income ($75k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Galveston County population projected at +43% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 33 days — a 3% lower offer ($268k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $249,140 (9.7% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 33 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 10% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.90% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.27%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.08%
• DSCR: 1.00
• GRM: 9.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $276,276
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
652 Burlina Rd	0.00mi	4/2.0	1,716 (0%)	1mo	$255,190	$149	99
644 Burlina Rd	0.00mi	4/2.0	1,716 (0%)	1mo	$275,990	$161	99
648 Burlina Rd	0.00mi	4/2.0	1,676 (-2%)	1mo	$249,990	$149	95
805 Apple Blossom Dr	0.17mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,501 (-12%)	1mo	$269,990	$180	66
1074 Garnet Star Dr	0.59mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,732 (+1%)	0mo	$295,990	$171	65
862 Sand Crab Ln	0.45mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,873 (+9%)	1mo	$255,000	$136	58
1341 Blue Moon Ln	0.57mi	4/2.0	1,872 (+9%)	1mo	$295,990	$158	57
1106 Radiant Ave	0.52mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,548 (-10%)	1mo	$265,990	$172	54
996 Camellia Hills Ln	0.50mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,526 (-11%)	1mo	$239,000	$157	53
1109 Black Rail St	0.53mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,526 (-11%)	1mo	$245,000	$161	51
1233 Sacred Light Ln	0.58mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,491 (-13%)	0mo	$252,990	$170	46
1305 Blue Moon Ln	0.61mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,491 (-13%)	1mo	$257,990	$173	44

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.95% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -15.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.45×
• Total profit: $-42,611
• Equity at exit: $41,194

10-year hold

• IRR: -5.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.65×
• Total profit: $-27,152
• Equity at exit: $23,887

Cash invested: $77,357 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77568

• Home prices YoY: -22.7%
• Rents YoY: 4.0%
• Active inventory: 661
• Price-to-rent: 9.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,491 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,449
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$345 /mo · $4,144/yr
• Insurance: −$115
• HOA: −$64
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$523
• Net cashflow: $-5

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,498

Max offer price $275,542

Occupancy floor 95%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $186	-5% $90	+0% $-5	+5% $-101	+10% $-196
Rent	-10% $-202	-5% $-103	+0% $-5	+5% $93	+10% $192
Rate	-1.0pp $134	-0.5pp $65	base $-5	+0.5pp $-77	+1.0pp $-149

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $69,069
• Closing costs: $8,288
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
453 Maple Bend Ln La Marque, TX	3.0	2.0	1860	$2,071	$1.11	22d	1	0.58mi
8208 Ash Rd Texas City, TX	4.0	2.0	1701	$1,795	$1.06	45d	1	1.48mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $64 · $768/yr

Listing history 7 events

1. 2026-04-20
   status Pending
2. 2026-04-20
   price $275,990
3. 2026-04-06
   price $258,890
4. 2026-04-03
   price $266,990
5. 2026-03-25
   price $271,040
6. 2026-03-18
   price $250,000
7. 2026-03-18
   listed $275,990 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $29,897
• − Mortgage interest: −$15,476
• − Property taxes: −$4,144
• − Insurance: −$1,381
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,392
• − Management: −$2,392
• − HOA: −$768
• − Depreciation: −$8,037
• Taxable loss: −$4,693
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,126
• After-tax cash flow: $1,065/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 6 photos

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab

This single-family home is in good condition with a modern kitchen and well-maintained exterior. It has potential for further value increases through minor cosmetic updates and smart home technology.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting the exterior and interior walls — Fresh paint can enhance curb appeal and interior aesthetics.
• Both Adding a smart home system — Modern technology can increase both resale and rental value.
• Resale Upgrading the flooring in the bathrooms — Updated flooring can make the bathrooms more appealing to potential buyers.
• Both Installing smart lighting in the kitchen and bathrooms — Smart lighting can improve energy efficiency and add a modern touch to the home.

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Painting the exterior and interior walls — Fresh paint can enhance curb appeal and interior aesthetics. ↑
• Both Adding a smart home system — Modern technology can increase both resale and rental value. ↑
• Resale Upgrading the flooring in the bathrooms — Updated flooring can make the bathrooms more appealing to potential buyers. ↑
• Both Installing smart lighting in the kitchen and bathrooms — Smart lighting can improve energy efficiency and add a modern touch to the home. ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Hitchcock ISD
• NCES district ID: 4823310
• Math proficiency: 28% ▼ -2.00%
• Reading proficiency: 31% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $47,041
• Composite: 25.5/100
• National rank: #7439
• State rank: #628 of 826 in TX

Livability — La Marque

• Score: 59/100
• State rank: #1136
• US rank: #20037

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment D Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings C

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: La Marque, TX
• County: Galveston County · 357,330 people
• City population: 23,083
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 23,083
• Household income: $74,694
• Rent vs Own: 28.0% rent · 72.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 700.0

Population outlook (Galveston County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 390,640 people
• By 2030: 425,226 · +8.9%
• By 2040: 493,765 · +26.4%
• By 2050: 559,698 · +43.3%
• By 2075: 719,260 · +84.1%
• By 2100: 819,628 · +109.8%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Highly diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.71)
• Race & ethnicity: White 37% Hispanic / Latino 29% Black 26% Two or more races 17% Asian 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 22% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 1% Italian 1% Serbian 1%
• Foreign-born: 8% · Canada
• Languages at home: 77% English-only · Spanish 21% Tagalog/Filipino 1% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Galveston

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+27.4) · D 35.7% · R 63.1% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -7.9pp toward R · 2008: -19.5pp · 2024: -27.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+27.4 2020: R+22.6 2016: R+22.6 2012: R+26.9 2008: R+19.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -69.39%
• Current HPI: 236.0239
• Rent YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+0.0% since first listed

7 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-20 Pending — HARMLS
• 2026-04-20 Price Changed $275,990 HARMLS
• 2026-04-06 Price Changed $258,890 HARMLS
• 2026-04-03 Price Changed $266,990 HARMLS
• 2026-03-25 Price Changed $271,040 HARMLS
• 2026-03-18 Price Changed $250,000 HARMLS
• 2026-03-18 Listed $275,990 HARMLS