406 W Court. St

Jasper, AR 72641

$274,000D

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,498 sqft · Built 1970 · SingleFamily · Active · 460 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,454/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,437
• Tax + insurance: −$240
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$515
• Net cashflow: $262/mo
• Annual: $3,141/yr
• Cap rate: 7.44%
• Cash-on-cash: 4.09%
• DSCR: 1.18
• 1% rule: 0.90%
• Cash to close: $76,720

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $274k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $262 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $245k (10.4% below list).
• It's been on market 460 days — a 12% lower offer ($241k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $241k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-2.9%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 62/100 on livability (#217 in AR) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, health & safety A+; Watch: crime F, amenities F, commute F.
• Jasper School District (rural): math 33% / reading 39% proficiency, ranked #115 of 238 in AR (top 48%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Jasper Elementary School (math 47% / reading 37%, grade F, #173 of 454 statewide, top 43%, 271 students, 65% FRL); Jasper High School (math 22% / reading 42%, grade F, #119 of 292 statewide, top 43%, 208 students, 61% FRL) — zoned schools at 63% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: 77 active listings in the ZIP.
• Newton County population projected at -36% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 8→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 7.4% vs local median 3.5% in Jasper — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 460 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1970 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.