406 W Court. St · Jasper, AR 72641

$274,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,498 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 459 Days on market

Built 1970 10,101 sqft lot $183/sqft · 45% above area Est $189k · 45% over ↓ 8% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +18.5/30.0
• DSCR +5.8/10.0
• 1% rule +4.0/10.0
• Appreciation +3.5/10.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Schools +3.0/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• ARV discount +0.0/15.0

Listing remarks MLS

This 1498 SF, 3 BR, 2 BATH brick home is located in the quaint town of Jasper, Arkansas near the Little Buffalo River in the Ozark Mountains and Buffalo River National Park Region of Arkansas. This home is within walking distance to the historic Jasper Square (eating $ shopping), Bradley Park (on the Little Buffalo River, pickle ball, swimming) and Jasper School. This home could also be used as a vacation home or short term nightly rental property (zoned commercial & residential). Fenced in back yard and nice deck on the back of the house. It is located in beautiful Newton County, Arkansas and near the Ozark National Forest. Property is just a short drive from Russellville, Harrison, and Fayetteville. This central location is convenient to the best swimming holes, hiking, canoeing, wildlife photography and fishing. Other nearby outdoor activities include horseback riding, mountaineering, caving, and scenic driving.

Key facts

• Brick home
• Fenced in back yard
• 0.23 acre lot

Tags

• BRICK HOME
• FENCED IN BACK YARD
• NEAR OZARK NATIONAL FOREST
• SHORT DRIVE FROM RUSSELLVILLE
• SHORT DRIVE FROM HARRISON
• SHORT DRIVE FROM FAYETTEVILLE

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $274k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $262 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $245k (10.4% below list).
• Recommended offer: $241k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 7.4% vs local median 3.5% in Jasper — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 62/100 on livability (#217 in AR) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, health & safety A+; Watch: crime F, amenities F, commute F.
• Jasper School District (rural): math 33% / reading 39% proficiency, ranked #115 of 238 in AR (top 48%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Jasper Elementary School (math 47% / reading 37%, grade F, #173 of 454 statewide, top 43%, 271 students, 65% FRL); Jasper High School (math 22% / reading 42%, grade F, #119 of 292 statewide, top 43%, 208 students, 61% FRL) — zoned schools at 63% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: 76 active listings in the ZIP.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-2.9%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Newton County population projected at -36% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 459 days — a 12% lower offer ($241k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 8→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $241,120 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 459 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1970 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.90% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.44%
• Cash-on-cash: 4.09%
• DSCR: 1.18
• GRM: 9.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $188,701
• List price: $274,000
• Delta: 45.20%
• Verdict: OVERPRICED
• Comps: 16 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 2 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
101 Cardinal Ln	0.56mi	3/2.0	1,568 (+5%)	20mo	$180,000	$115	49
103 W 74	0.62mi	3/2.0	1,683 (+12%)	9mo	$90,000	$53	43

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-2.91% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -9.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.65×
• Total profit: $-26,821
• Equity at exit: $41,921

10-year hold

• IRR: -0.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.98×
• Total profit: $-1,423
• Equity at exit: $25,527

Cash invested: $76,720 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 92 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Arkansas: 92 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+14
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Only US state where non-payment is criminal. Strongly landlord-favorable; very few tenant protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 72641

• Home prices YoY: -1.5%
• Active inventory: 76
• Price-to-rent: 9.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,454 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,437
• Tax from tax record: −$126 /mo · $1,514/yr
• Insurance: −$114
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$515
• Net cashflow: $262

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,123

Max offer price $274,000

Occupancy floor 84%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $417	-5% $339	+0% $262	+5% $184	+10% $107
Rent	-10% $68	-5% $165	+0% $262	+5% $359	+10% $456
Rate	-1.0pp $400	-0.5pp $331	base $262	+0.5pp $191	+1.0pp $119

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $68,500
• Closing costs: $8,220
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 19 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $274,000 Active 459 DOM
2. 2026-06-19
   days on market $274,000 Active 457 DOM
3. 2026-06-18
   days on market $274,000 Active 456 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   days on market $274,000 Active 455 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   days on market $274,000 Active 454 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $274,000 Active 453 DOM
7. 2026-06-14
   days on market $274,000 Active 451 DOM
8. 2026-06-12
   days on market $274,000 Active 450 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $274,000 Active 447 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $274,000 Active 446 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $274,000 Active 445 DOM
12. 2026-06-05
    days on market $274,000 Active 443 DOM
13. 2026-06-04
    days on market $274,000 Active 441 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    days on market $274,000 Active 440 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $274,000 Active 439 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $274,000 Active 438 DOM
17. 2026-05-31
    days on market $274,000 Active 437 DOM
18. 2026-04-27
    price $274,000 934-char remark

    Show marketing remark (934 chars)

    This 1498 SF, 3 BR, 2 BATH brick home is located in the quaint town of Jasper, Arkansas near the Little Buffalo River in the Ozark Mountains and Buffalo River National Park Region of Arkansas. This home is within walking distance to the historic Jasper Square (eating $ shopping), Bradley Park (on the Little Buffalo River, pickle ball, swimming) and Jasper School. This home could also be used as a vacation home or short term nightly rental property (zoned commercial & residential). Fenced in back yard and nice deck on the back of the house. It is located in beautiful Newton County, Arkansas and near the Ozark National Forest. Property is just a short drive from Russellville, Harrison, and Fayetteville. This central location is convenient to the best swimming holes, hiking, canoeing, wildlife photography and fishing. Other nearby outdoor activities include horseback riding, mountaineering, caving, and scenic driving.

19. 2025-03-18
    listed $299,000 Active 934-char remark

    Show marketing remark (934 chars)

    This 1498 SF, 3 BR, 2 BATH brick home is located in the quaint town of Jasper, Arkansas near the Little Buffalo River in the Ozark Mountains and Buffalo River National Park Region of Arkansas. This home is within walking distance to the historic Jasper Square (eating $ shopping), Bradley Park (on the Little Buffalo River, pickle ball, swimming) and Jasper School. This home could also be used as a vacation home or short term nightly rental property (zoned commercial & residential). Fenced in back yard and nice deck on the back of the house. It is located in beautiful Newton County, Arkansas and near the Ozark National Forest. Property is just a short drive from Russellville, Harrison, and Fayetteville. This central location is convenient to the best swimming holes, hiking, canoeing, wildlife photography and fishing. Other nearby outdoor activities include horseback riding, mountaineering, caving, and scenic driving.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast AR · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,514 · $126/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,754 · $146/mo
• Expected delta: +$240/yr (+$20/mo · 15.8%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 4/10 Moderate 22% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 8 d/yr ≥103°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 100% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $29,453
• − Mortgage interest: −$15,348
• − Property taxes: −$1,514
• − Insurance: −$1,370
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,356
• − Management: −$2,356
• − Depreciation: −$7,971
• Taxable loss: −$1,463
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$351
• After-tax cash flow: $3,492/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Jasper School District
• NCES district ID: 0508240
• Math proficiency: 33% ▼ -5.00%
• Reading proficiency: 39% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $33,615
• Composite: 29.59/100
• National rank: #6480
• State rank: #115 of 238 in AR

Livability — Jasper

• Score: 62/100
• State rank: #217
• US rank: #16736

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment F Housing B- Health & safety A+ User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Jasper, AR
• Population (ZIP): 2,063

Population outlook (Newton County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 7,052 people
• By 2030: 6,509 · -7.7%
• By 2040: 5,424 · -23.1%
• By 2050: 4,502 · -36.2%
• By 2075: 3,018 · -57.2%
• By 2100: 1,985 · -71.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (93%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 93% Hispanic / Latino 6%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 5%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 2% Lithuanian 2% Serbian 1%
• Foreign-born: 2%
• Languages at home: 98% English-only · Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Newton

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+64.2) · D 17.1% · R 81.2% · Other 1.7%
• 2008→2024 swing: -28.7pp toward R · 2008: -35.5pp · 2024: -64.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+64.2 2020: R+62.1 2016: R+58.3 2012: R+41.4 2008: R+35.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -2.91%
• Current HPI: 195.4325
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.80%
• F500 in state: 10

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AR)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Retail	1	$681B
▸Food / Agriculture	1	$53B
▸Retail / Energy	1	$22B
▸Transportation / Logistics	1	$12B
▸Energy	1	$4B

Price history

-8.4% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-27 Price Changed $274,000 NWARMLS
• 2025-03-18 Listed $299,000 NWARMLS

Property tax history

+9.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,514 · +0.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.