150 Cedar Grv

Winchester, VA 22603

$195,000D

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 932 sqft · Built 1967 · Manufactured · Active · 40 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,548/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,023
• Tax + insurance: −$147
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$325
• Net cashflow: $53/mo
• Annual: $636/yr
• Cap rate: 6.62%
• Cash-on-cash: 1.17%
• DSCR: 1.05
• 1% rule: 0.79%
• Cash to close: $54,600

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath manufactured listed at $195k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $53 ($636/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $155k (20.6% below list).
• It's been on market 40 days — a 3% lower offer ($189k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $155k (20.6% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#138 in VA, #4,429 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, health & safety A+, amenities B; Watch: commute F.
• Frederick County Public School District (rural): math 49% / reading 64% proficiency, ranked #65 of 131 in VA (top 50%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Apple Pie Ridge Elementary (math 52% / reading 57%, grade C, #650 of 1,108 statewide, top 62%, 423 students, 51% FRL); James Wood Middle (math 35% / reading 54%, grade D, #278 of 342 statewide, top 82%, 803 students, 52% FRL); James Wood High (math 63% / reading 82%, grade B+, #131 of 319 statewide, top 41%, 1,437 students, 32% FRL) — zoned schools average 45% FRL vs 27% district-wide (17 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 145 active listings in the ZIP; 872 units permitted in Frederick County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Frederick County population projected at +17% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 4 sale attempts since 20y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $138k; 41% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 6.6% vs local median 3.0% in Winchester — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 40 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 21% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1967 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.