150 Cedar Grv · Winchester, VA 22603

$195,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 932 sqft · Manufactured · 40 Days on market

Built 1967 1.00 ac lot ↓ 11% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +14.8/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +5.0/10.0
• DSCR +4.5/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• 1% rule +2.9/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

This property is being sold strictly as-is, where-is. The mobile home on the property is believed to date back to the 1960s and is in need of significant renovation. Previous occupants began updating the home but did not complete the work. The property also features a garage-style building with a work bay and office space equipped with air conditioning, offering excellent potential for storage, workshop use, or small business operations. Heating would require portable heaters or an alternative heat source. Please note: the previous tenant still has personal property on site, which is expected to be removed as soon as possible. Buyer to verify all information and property condition to their satisfaction.

Key facts

• Air conditioning
• Office space
• Storage potential

Tags

• SIGNIFICANT RENOVATION
• GARAGE-STYLE BUILDING
• WORK BAY
• OFFICE SPACE
• AIR CONDITIONING
• STORAGE POTENTIAL

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Driveway
• Utilities: Well water; Septic system; Electric service for heating, cooling, and hot water
• Home design: Mobile home (pre-1976)
• Construction: Metal siding; Metal roof; Above-grade and below-grade structures noted; Fee simple ownership; Built year per assessor
• Exterior features: Property located outside city limits; Tidal water not present

Interior

• Bedrooms: Three bedrooms on the main level
• Bathrooms: One full bathroom (on the main level)
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating (electric); Window air conditioning units (electric); Electric hot water
• Interior features: Main-floor laundry; No basement
• Laundry & utility: Laundry located on the main floor

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath manufactured listed at $195k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $53 ($636/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $155k (20.6% below list).
• Recommended offer: $155k (20.6% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.6% vs local median 3.0% in Winchester — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#138 in VA, #4,429 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, health & safety A+, amenities B; Watch: commute F.
• Frederick County Public School District (rural): math 49% / reading 64% proficiency, ranked #65 of 131 in VA (top 50%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Apple Pie Ridge Elementary (math 52% / reading 57%, grade C, #650 of 1,108 statewide, top 62%, 423 students, 51% FRL); James Wood Middle (math 35% / reading 54%, grade D, #278 of 342 statewide, top 82%, 803 students, 52% FRL); James Wood High (math 63% / reading 82%, grade B+, #131 of 319 statewide, top 41%, 1,437 students, 32% FRL) — zoned schools average 45% FRL vs 27% district-wide (17 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 145 active listings in the ZIP; 872 units permitted in Frederick County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Frederick County population projected at +17% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 40 days — a 3% lower offer ($189k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts since 20y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $138k; 41% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $154,814 (20.6% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 40 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 21% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1967 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.79% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.62%
• Cash-on-cash: 1.17%
• DSCR: 1.05
• GRM: 10.5

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -14.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.48×
• Total profit: $-28,307
• Equity at exit: $29,075

10-year hold

• IRR: -5.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.62×
• Total profit: $-20,650
• Equity at exit: $16,860

Cash invested: $54,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning
• State Virginia: 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning · D+2
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

VRLTA gives some tenant protections; Northern Virginia courts slower; rural VA landlord-leaning.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 22603

• Home prices YoY: -17.8%
• Active inventory: 145
• Price-to-rent: 10.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,548 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,023
• Tax from tax record: −$66 /mo · $794/yr
• Insurance: −$81
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$325
• Net cashflow: $53

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,481

Max offer price $195,000

Occupancy floor 92%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $163	-5% $108	+0% $53	+5% $-2	+10% $-57
Rent	-10% $-69	-5% $-8	+0% $53	+5% $114	+10% $175
Rate	-1.0pp $151	-0.5pp $103	base $53	+0.5pp $2	+1.0pp $-49

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $48,750
• Closing costs: $5,850
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 29 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $195,000 Active 40 DOM
2. 2026-06-19
   days on market $195,000 Active 38 DOM
3. 2026-06-18
   days on market $195,000 Active 37 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   days on market $195,000 Active 36 DOM
5. 2026-06-17
   listing id $195,000 Active 35 DOM
6. 2026-06-16
   days on market $195,000 Active 35 DOM
7. 2026-06-15
   days on market $195,000 Active 34 DOM
8. 2026-06-14
   days on market $195,000 Active 32 DOM
9. 2026-06-13
   days on marketlisting id $195,000 Active 31 DOM
10. 2026-06-10
    days on market $195,000 Active 29 DOM
11. 2026-06-09
    days on marketlisting id $195,000 Active 28 DOM
12. 2026-06-08
    days on market $195,000 Active 27 DOM
13. 2026-06-07
    days on market $195,000 Active 26 DOM
14. 2026-06-05
    days on market $195,000 Active 23 DOM
15. 2026-06-03
    listing id $195,000 Active 21 DOM
16. 2026-06-02
    days on market $195,000 Active 21 DOM
17. 2026-06-01
    days on market $195,000 Active 20 DOM
18. 2026-05-31
    days on market $195,000 Active 19 DOM
19. 2026-05-30
    days on market $195,000 Active 18 DOM
20. 2026-05-12
    listed $195,000 Active 712-char remark

    Show marketing remark (712 chars)

    This property is being sold strictly as-is, where-is. The mobile home on the property is believed to date back to the 1960s and is in need of significant renovation. Previous occupants began updating the home but did not complete the work. The property also features a garage-style building with a work bay and office space equipped with air conditioning, offering excellent potential for storage, workshop use, or small business operations. Heating would require portable heaters or an alternative heat source. Please note: the previous tenant still has personal property on site, which is expected to be removed as soon as possible. Buyer to verify all information and property condition to their satisfaction.

21. 2026-05-12
    listed $195,000 Active

    Show marketing remark (712 chars)

    This property is being sold strictly as-is, where-is. The mobile home on the property is believed to date back to the 1960s and is in need of significant renovation. Previous occupants began updating the home but did not complete the work. The property also features a garage-style building with a work bay and office space equipped with air conditioning, offering excellent potential for storage, workshop use, or small business operations. Heating would require portable heaters or an alternative heat source. Please note: the previous tenant still has personal property on site, which is expected to be removed as soon as possible. Buyer to verify all information and property condition to their satisfaction.

22. 2026-03-26
    soldstatus $138,450
23. 2021-05-21
    soldstatus $200,000
24. 2021-05-18
    soldstatus $200,000 Closed 700-char remark

    Show marketing remark (700 chars)

    A unique property that rarely becomes available. Do you have a service related business where you might have business vehicles to park, a need for some warehouse space? The metal 48 x 30 building has 2 offices and a half-bath with about 1,000 sq. ft. of shop space. The lot size is right around 1 acre. There is a level, gravel parking pad that services the building. There is a mobilehome on the property that produces monthly income. The mobile home is currently bringing in $900 monthly. The mobile home has some age on it but has had more recent upgrades; a 3rd bedroom and a laundry/mud room was added along with a pitched metal roof. Located less than 10 minutes north of Winchester (Rt. 522).

25. 2021-05-05
    status Pending 700-char remark

    Show marketing remark (700 chars)

    A unique property that rarely becomes available. Do you have a service related business where you might have business vehicles to park, a need for some warehouse space? The metal 48 x 30 building has 2 offices and a half-bath with about 1,000 sq. ft. of shop space. The lot size is right around 1 acre. There is a level, gravel parking pad that services the building. There is a mobilehome on the property that produces monthly income. The mobile home is currently bringing in $900 monthly. The mobile home has some age on it but has had more recent upgrades; a 3rd bedroom and a laundry/mud room was added along with a pitched metal roof. Located less than 10 minutes north of Winchester (Rt. 522).

26. 2021-02-22
    historical Active Under Contract 700-char remark

    Show marketing remark (700 chars)

    A unique property that rarely becomes available. Do you have a service related business where you might have business vehicles to park, a need for some warehouse space? The metal 48 x 30 building has 2 offices and a half-bath with about 1,000 sq. ft. of shop space. The lot size is right around 1 acre. There is a level, gravel parking pad that services the building. There is a mobilehome on the property that produces monthly income. The mobile home is currently bringing in $900 monthly. The mobile home has some age on it but has had more recent upgrades; a 3rd bedroom and a laundry/mud room was added along with a pitched metal roof. Located less than 10 minutes north of Winchester (Rt. 522).

27. 2021-01-06
    listed $219,900 Active 700-char remark

    Show marketing remark (700 chars)

    A unique property that rarely becomes available. Do you have a service related business where you might have business vehicles to park, a need for some warehouse space? The metal 48 x 30 building has 2 offices and a half-bath with about 1,000 sq. ft. of shop space. The lot size is right around 1 acre. There is a level, gravel parking pad that services the building. There is a mobilehome on the property that produces monthly income. The mobile home is currently bringing in $900 monthly. The mobile home has some age on it but has had more recent upgrades; a 3rd bedroom and a laundry/mud room was added along with a pitched metal roof. Located less than 10 minutes north of Winchester (Rt. 522).

28. 2006-12-21
    historical
29. 2006-06-25
    listed

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast VA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $794 · $66/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,599 · $133/mo
• Expected delta: +$805/yr (+$67/mo · 101.4%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥99°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 100% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $18,578
• − Mortgage interest: −$10,923
• − Property taxes: −$794
• − Insurance: −$975
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,486
• − Management: −$1,486
• − Depreciation: −$5,673
• Taxable loss: −$2,759
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$662
• After-tax cash flow: $1,298/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Frederick County Public School District
• NCES district ID: 5101470
• Math proficiency: 49% ▼ -30.00%
• Reading proficiency: 64% ▼ -10.00%
• Median HH income: $67,049
• Composite: 49.75/100
• National rank: #1964
• State rank: #65 of 131 in VA

Livability — Winchester

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #138
• US rank: #4429

Category grades

Amenities B Commute F Cost of living B Crime C Employment C+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• City population: 62,070
• Population (ZIP): 17,748

Population outlook (Frederick County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 92,976 people
• By 2030: 97,195 · +4.5%
• By 2040: 104,149 · +12.0%
• By 2050: 108,407 · +16.6%
• By 2075: 116,431 · +25.2%
• By 2100: 114,323 · +23.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (74%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 74% Hispanic / Latino 18% Two or more races 6% Black 4% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 11%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 2% Italian 2% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 12% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 84% English-only · Spanish 14% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Frederick

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+28.4) · D 35.2% · R 63.6% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -7.0pp toward R · 2008: -21.4pp · 2024: -28.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+28.4 2020: R+27.4 2016: R+35.3 2012: R+28.0 2008: R+21.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -47.71%
• Current HPI: 220.1805
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.40%
• F500 in state: 50

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in VA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Aerospace / Defense	4	$236B
▸Technology / Defense	3	$32B
▸Financial Services	2	$176B
▸Utilities	2	$27B
▸Insurance	2	$25B
▸Technology	2	$15B

Price history

-11.3% since first listed

10 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-12 Listed $195,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2026-05-12 Listed $195,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2026-03-26 Sold (Public Records) $138,450 Public Records
• 2021-05-21 Sold (Public Records) $200,000 Public Records
• 2021-05-18 Sold (MLS) $200,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2021-05-05 Pending — BRIGHT MLS
• 2021-02-22 Contingent — BRIGHT MLS
• 2021-01-06 Listed $219,900 BRIGHT MLS
• 2006-12-21 Delisted — MRIS
• 2006-06-25 Listed — MRIS

Property tax history

+8.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $794 · +139.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.