49 Trout Creek Rd

Upper Red Hook, NY 12526

$695,000D

4 bd · 2.5 ba · 2,464 sqft · Built 1993 · SingleFamily · Active · 51 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $3,522/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$3,645
• Tax + insurance: −$1,321
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$740
• Net cashflow: $-2,183/mo
• Annual: $-26,196/yr
• Cap rate: 2.52%
• Cash-on-cash: -13.46%
• DSCR: 0.40
• 1% rule: 0.51%
• Cash to close: $194,600

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $695k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-2k ($-26k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $309k (55.5% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $352k (49.3% below list).
• It's been on market 51 days — a 3% lower offer ($674k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $309k (55.5% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• In year one you build about $74k of equity ($5k loan paydown + $70k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Location reads: area grade D — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Red Hook Central School District (town): math 58% / reading 57% proficiency, ranked #245 of 590 in NY (top 42%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 16% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: Mill Road-Primary Grades (309 students, 23% FRL); Linden Avenue Middle School (math 34% / reading 54%, grade D, #348 of 729 statewide, top 50%, 404 students, 24% FRL); Red Hook Senior High School (math 98% / reading 84%, grade A+, #203 of 1,100 statewide, top 20%, 547 students, 23% FRL).
• Market conditions: 40 active listings in the ZIP; 136 units permitted in Columbia County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Columbia County population projected at -22% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $160k; list at $695k implies a 335% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$119k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Cap rate 2.5% vs local median 1.7% in Upper Red Hook — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 51 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 55% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.