49 Trout Creek Rd · Upper Red Hook, NY 12526

$695,000

4 bd · 2.5 ba · 2,464 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 51 Days on market

Built 1993 2.00 ac lot $282/sqft · 17% below area Est $838k · 17% under

---

Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• Schools +5.1/10.0
• Cash flow +3.2/30.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +0.1/10.0
• DSCR +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Tucked at the end of a quiet dead-end street, this four bedroom, two bath home sits on two level acres in a location that's hard to beat -- just minutes to Red Hook, Germantown, and Hudson. With 2,464 square feet of well maintained living space, thoughtfully cared for by its current owners, the home offers both immediate comfort and the opportunity to make it your own. The lower level is designed for everyday living. An updated kitchen with a center island opens to a large deck, complete with a 30 foot round pool and hot tub -- an easy extension of the living space in the warmer months. Outside, the backyard is filled with fruit trees, perennials, and seasonal plantings that return year after year. Upstairs, central air and a well balanced layout create a comfortable, functional flow. The primary suite features a walk-in closet and en suite bath, while three additional bedrooms offer flexibility for a home office, gym, or guest space. A full basement provides excellent storage and houses the mechanicals, including a newer heater installed in 2021. Major updates have already been taken care of, including roof and siding (2019), driveway (2025), and a regularly maintained chimney, most recently cleaned in October 2025. Close to Bard College and Lake Taghkanic State Park, and within the Red Hook Central School District, this is a property where location and long term potential come together!

Key facts

• 2 acre lot
• 2 garage spots
• Pool

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Private above-ground pool with spa (pool/spa combo)

Exterior

• Parking: Driveway; Off-street parking; Garage with door opener; 2-car garage
• Utilities: Septic tank; Cable connected; Electricity connected; Phone connected
• Home design: Single family residence; Actual property condition
• Construction: Frame construction; Block foundation; Full basement with storage space and walk-out access; Attic storage (unfinished)
• Exterior features: Garden; Back yard; Front yard; Landscaped; Level lot

Interior

• Kitchen: Kitchen island; Open kitchen; Pantry; Dishwasher; Electric oven; Oven; Refrigerator; Other appliances
• Bedrooms: Total rooms: 11 (includes bedrooms and living spaces)
• Flooring: Carpet; Ceramic tile; Combination flooring; Hardwood; Vinyl
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms; 1 half bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Central air conditioning; Baseboard heating; Hot water heating; Oil heating; Steam heating; Wood-burning fireplace (1)
• Interior features: Entrance foyer; High-speed internet; Kitchen island; Open kitchen; Pantry; Primary bathroom; Quartz/Quartzite counters; Soaking tub; Walk-in closets; Washer/dryer hookup; Covered porch; Deck; Patio/porch
• Laundry & utility: Washer; Dryer; Laundry in bathroom; Separate laundry room; Washer/dryer hookup

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $695k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-2k ($-26k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $309k (55.5% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $352k (49.3% below list).
• Recommended offer: $309k (55.5% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Cap rate 2.5% vs local median 1.7% in Upper Red Hook — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade D — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Red Hook Central School District (town): math 58% / reading 57% proficiency, ranked #245 of 590 in NY (top 42%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 16% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: Mill Road-Primary Grades (309 students, 23% FRL); Linden Avenue Middle School (math 34% / reading 54%, grade D, #348 of 729 statewide, top 50%, 404 students, 24% FRL); Red Hook Senior High School (math 98% / reading 84%, grade A+, #203 of 1,100 statewide, top 20%, 547 students, 23% FRL).
• Market conditions: 40 active listings in the ZIP; 136 units permitted in Columbia County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $74k of equity ($5k loan paydown + $70k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Columbia County population projected at -22% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$119k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 51 days — a 3% lower offer ($674k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $160k; list at $695k implies a 335% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Recommended offer $309,365 (55.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 51 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 55% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.51% ✗
• Cap rate: 2.52%
• Cash-on-cash: -13.46%
• DSCR: 0.40
• GRM: 16.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $838,105
• List price: $695,000
• Delta: -17.07%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 7 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
14 Regan Way	0.55mi	3/3.5 (-1)	2,500 (+2%)	8mo	$771,000	$308	56

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 14.9%
• Equity multiple: 2.23×
• Total profit: $239,632
• Equity at exit: $626,111

10-year hold

• IRR: 14.7%
• Equity multiple: 5.19×
• Total profit: $815,319
• Equity at exit: $1,350,232

Cash invested: $194,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 12526

• Home prices YoY: 8.9%
• Active inventory: 40
• Price-to-rent: 16.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,522 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$3,645
• Tax from tax record: −$1,031 /mo · $12,374/yr
• Insurance: −$290
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$740
• Net cashflow: $-2,183

Break-even live

Break-even rent $6,285

Max offer price $309,365

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $173,750
• Closing costs: $20,850
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 20 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $695,000 Active 51 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $695,000 Active 50 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $695,000 Active 49 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $695,000 Active 48 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $695,000 Active 46 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $695,000 Active 45 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $695,000 Active 43 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $695,000 Active 42 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $695,000 Active 41 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $695,000 Active 40 DOM
11. 2026-06-05
    days on market $695,000 Active 37 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $695,000 Active 36 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $695,000 Active 35 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $695,000 Active 34 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $695,000 Active 33 DOM
16. 2026-05-30
    days on market $695,000 Active 32 DOM
17. 2026-04-28
    listed $695,000 Active 1438-char remark
18. 2026-04-27
    listed $695,000 Active 1412-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1412 chars)

    Tucked at the end of a quiet dead-end street, this four bedroom, two bath home sits on two level acres in a location that's hard to beat -- just minutes to Red Hook, Germantown, and Hudson. With 2,464 square feet of well maintained living space, thoughtfully cared for by its current owners, the home offers both immediate comfort and the opportunity to make it your own. The lower level is designed for everyday living. An updated kitchen with a center island opens to a large deck, complete with a 30 foot round pool and hot tub -- an easy extension of the living space in the warmer months. Outside, the backyard is filled with fruit trees, perennials, and seasonal plantings that return year after year. Upstairs, central air and a well balanced layout create a comfortable, functional flow. The primary suite features a walk-in closet and en suite bath, while three additional bedrooms offer flexibility for a home office, gym, or guest space. A full basement provides excellent storage and houses the mechanicals, including a newer heater installed in 2021. Major updates have already been taken care of, including roof and siding (2019), driveway (2025), and a regularly maintained chimney, most recently cleaned in October 2025. Close to Bard College and Lake Taghkanic State Park, and within the Red Hook Central School District, this is a property where location and long term potential come together!

19. 1993-05-28
    soldstatus $159,900
20. 1993-04-08
    soldstatus $29,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $12,374 · $1,031/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $12,374 · $1,031/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥98°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 3/10 Moderate 9% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $42,265
• − Mortgage interest: −$38,931
• − Property taxes: −$12,374
• − Insurance: −$3,475
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,381
• − Management: −$3,381
• − Depreciation: −$20,218
• Taxable loss: −$39,496
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$9,479
• After-tax cash flow: $-16,717/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Red Hook Central School District
• NCES district ID: 3624240
• Math proficiency: 58% ▼ -4.00%
• Reading proficiency: 57% ▼ -8.00%
• Median HH income: $69,040
• Composite: 50.84/100
• National rank: #1801
• State rank: #245 of 590 in NY

Livability — Upper Red Hook

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 3,427

Population outlook (Columbia County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 58,662 people
• By 2030: 56,557 · -3.6%
• By 2040: 51,324 · -12.5%
• By 2050: 45,790 · -21.9%
• By 2075: 35,232 · -39.9%
• By 2100: 25,846 · -55.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (84%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 84% Two or more races 8% Hispanic / Latino 6% Black 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 1% Puerto Rican 3% Cuban 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 5% Lithuanian 4% Iranian 3%
• Foreign-born: 8% · Canada, South Korea
• Languages at home: 93% English-only · Spanish 4% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Columbia

• 2024 margin: D (+14.7) · D 57.4% · R 42.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +1.3pp toward D · 2008: 13.4pp · 2024: 14.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+14.7 2020: D+16.7 2016: D+1.4 2012: D+11.7 2008: D+13.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 41.93%
• Current HPI: 511.9627
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+2296.6% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-28 Listed $695,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-27 Listed $695,000 HVCRMLS
• 1993-05-28 Sold (Public Records) $159,900 Public Records
• 1993-04-08 Sold (Public Records) $29,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+5.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $12,374 · -1.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.