1008 Madisyn Ln

Valencia, PA 16059

$419,990D-

3 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,901 sqft · Built 2026 · Townhouse · Active · 60 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,800/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,202
• Tax + insurance: −$700
• HOA: −$170
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$588
• Net cashflow: $-860/mo
• Annual: $-10,325/yr
• Cap rate: 3.83%
• Cash-on-cash: -8.78%
• DSCR: 0.61
• 1% rule: 0.67%
• Cash to close: $117,597

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath townhouse listed at $420k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-860 ($-10k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $295k (29.6% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $280k (33.3% below list).
• It's been on market 60 days — a 3% lower offer ($407k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $280k (33.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-1.3%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 55/100 on livability (#1,667 in PA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: housing A-, crime B, cost of living B; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Mars Area SD (rural): math 58% / reading 78% proficiency, ranked #24 of 539 in PA (top 4%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 7% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: Mars Area El Sch (math 68% / reading 80%, grade A, #111 of 1,518 statewide, top 7%, 907 students, 13% FRL); Mars Area Centennial Sch (math 55% / reading 78%, grade A-, #20 of 512 statewide, top 4%, 540 students, 12% FRL); Mars Area Shs (math 82% / reading 93%, grade A, #5 of 437 statewide, top 1%, 1,054 students, 12% FRL).
• Market conditions: 48 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 987 units permitted in Butler County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Butler County population projected to shrink 5% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Cap rate 3.8% vs local median 2.0% in Valencia — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 60 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 33% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.