1008 Madisyn Ln · Valencia, PA 16059

$419,990

3 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,901 sqft · Townhouse · 60 Days on market

Built 2026 3,049 sqft lot $221/sqft · 8% below area Est $456k · 8% under $170/mo HOA · 6% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +11.1/15.0
• Schools +6.1/10.0
• Cash flow +5.7/30.0
• Appreciation +4.4/10.0
• Livability +2.8/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +1.7/10.0
• DSCR +0.1/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Welcome home to 1008 Madisyn Lane, a brand-new townhome in Sienna Village by D. R. Horton, Valencia's newest low-maintenance community in the Mars Area School District. This thoughtfully designed Kennedy floorplan offers the comfort of modern living with everyday conveniences buyers love. Enjoy a main-level entrance that makes life easier-perfect for unloading groceries straight from the car to the kitchen. The open first floor features 9-foot ceilings, luxury vinyl plank flooring, and a bright, airy layout that brings everyone together. The stylish kitchen includes quartz countertops, sleek cabinetry, and a large island, opening effortlessly to the dining area and spacious family room-ideal for entertaining or relaxing at home. Upstairs, the private owner's suite offers a walk-in closet and full bath. Two additional bedrooms each feature walk-in closets and share a second full bath with double vanities. A second-floor laundry adds convenience right where you need it most. This home also includes a 2-car attached garage, smart home technology, and access to resort-style amenities including a clubhouse, pool, and pickleball court. Don't miss this opportunity to make Sienna Village your new home, schedule a tour today!

Key facts

• Quartz countertops
• Main-level entrance
• Second-floor laundry

Tags

• MAIN-LEVEL ENTRANCE
• LUXURY VINYL PLANK FLOORING
• STYLISH KITCHEN
• QUARTZ COUNTERTOPS
• WALK-IN CLOSET
• SECOND-FLOOR LAUNDRY

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath townhouse listed at $420k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-860 ($-10k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $295k (29.6% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $280k (33.3% below list).
• Recommended offer: $280k (33.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 3.8% vs local median 2.0% in Valencia — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 55/100 on livability (#1,667 in PA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: housing A-, crime B, cost of living B; Watch: schools D-, amenities F, commute F.
• Mars Area SD (rural): math 58% / reading 78% proficiency, ranked #24 of 539 in PA (top 4%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 7% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Market conditions: 48 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 987 units permitted in Butler County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-1.3%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Butler County population projected to shrink 5% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 60 days — a 3% lower offer ($407k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Recommended offer $280,000 (33.3% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 60 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 33% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.67% ✗
• Cap rate: 3.83%
• Cash-on-cash: -8.78%
• DSCR: 0.61
• GRM: 12.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $456,077
• List price: $419,990
• Delta: -7.91%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 7 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 4 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1002 Madisyn Ln	0.02mi	3/2.5	1,901 (0%)	1mo	$427,990	$225	98
1191 Tilly Dr	0.64mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,849 (-3%)	8mo	$439,900	$238	52
1253 Tilly Dr	0.71mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,849 (-3%)	8mo	$472,000	$255	48
1271 Tilly Dr	0.72mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,849 (-3%)	15mo	$450,000	$243	42

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-1.27% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -18.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.22×
• Total profit: $-91,347
• Equity at exit: $95,990

10-year hold

• IRR: -12.2%
• Equity multiple: -0.02×
• Total profit: $-120,466
• Equity at exit: $96,272

Cash invested: $117,597 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 62 Landlord-Friendly
• State Pennsylvania: 62 Landlord-Friendly · EVEN
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

10-day notice; Philadelphia has eviction-court diversion + some protections; otherwise moderate.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 16059

• Home prices YoY: -0.5%
• Active inventory: 48
• Price-to-rent: 12.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,800 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,202
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$525 /mo · $6,300/yr
• Insurance: −$175
• HOA: −$170
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$588
• Net cashflow: $-860

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,889

Max offer price $295,481

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-570	-5% $-715	+0% $-860	+5% $-1,006	+10% $-1,151
Rent	-10% $-1,082	-5% $-971	+0% $-860	+5% $-750	+10% $-639
Rate	-1.0pp $-649	-0.5pp $-754	base $-860	+0.5pp $-969	+1.0pp $-1,080

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $104,998
• Closing costs: $12,600
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1078 Adair Ave Valencia, PA	3.0	2.5	2253	$2,800	$1.24	3d	1	1.41mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $170 · $2,040/yr
• Likely covers: pool

Listing history 20 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $419,990 Active 60 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $419,990 Active 57 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $419,990 Active 56 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $419,990 Active 55 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $419,990 Active 54 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $419,990 Active 52 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   remarks 687-char remark
8. 2026-06-13
   days on market $419,990 Active 51 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $419,990 Active 48 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $419,990 Active 47 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $419,990 Active 46 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $419,990 Active 42 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $419,990 Active 41 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    price $419,990 Active 40 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $424,990 Active 40 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $424,990 Active 39 DOM
17. 2026-05-12
    price $429,990 1236-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1236 chars)

    Welcome home to 1008 Madisyn Lane, a brand-new townhome in Sienna Village by D. R. Horton, Valencia's newest low-maintenance community in the Mars Area School District. This thoughtfully designed Kennedy floorplan offers the comfort of modern living with everyday conveniences buyers love. Enjoy a main-level entrance that makes life easier-perfect for unloading groceries straight from the car to the kitchen. The open first floor features 9-foot ceilings, luxury vinyl plank flooring, and a bright, airy layout that brings everyone together. The stylish kitchen includes quartz countertops, sleek cabinetry, and a large island, opening effortlessly to the dining area and spacious family room-ideal for entertaining or relaxing at home. Upstairs, the private owner's suite offers a walk-in closet and full bath. Two additional bedrooms each feature walk-in closets and share a second full bath with double vanities. A second-floor laundry adds convenience right where you need it most. This home also includes a 2-car attached garage, smart home technology, and access to resort-style amenities including a clubhouse, pool, and pickleball court. Don't miss this opportunity to make Sienna Village your new home, schedule a tour today!

18. 2026-05-11
    price $429,990 1309-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1309 chars)

    Welcome home to 1002 Madisyn Lane, a brand-new townhome in Sienna Village by D. R. Horton, Valencia’s newest low-maintenance community in the Mars Area School District. This thoughtfully designed Kennedy floorplan offers the comfort of modern living with everyday conveniences buyers love. Enjoy a main-level entrance that makes life easier—perfect for unloading groceries straight from the car to the kitchen. The open first floor features 9-foot ceilings, luxury vinyl plank flooring, and a bright, airy layout that brings everyone together. The stylish kitchen includes quartz countertops, sleek cabinetry, and a pantry, opening effortlessly to the dining area and spacious family room—ideal for entertaining or relaxing at home. Upstairs, the private owner’s suite offers a walk-in closet and full bath, while two additional bedrooms—each with walk-in closets—share a second full bath with double vanities. A second-floor laundry adds convenience right where you need it most. This home also includes a 2-car attached garage, smart home technology, and access to resort-style amenities including a clubhouse, pool, and pickleball courts. Conveniently located near I-79, Route 228, and shopping and dining at The Streets of Cranberry, with an easy commute to Pittsburgh.

19. 2026-04-23
    listed $430,990 Active 1236-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1236 chars)

    Welcome home to 1008 Madisyn Lane, a brand-new townhome in Sienna Village by D. R. Horton, Valencia's newest low-maintenance community in the Mars Area School District. This thoughtfully designed Kennedy floorplan offers the comfort of modern living with everyday conveniences buyers love. Enjoy a main-level entrance that makes life easier-perfect for unloading groceries straight from the car to the kitchen. The open first floor features 9-foot ceilings, luxury vinyl plank flooring, and a bright, airy layout that brings everyone together. The stylish kitchen includes quartz countertops, sleek cabinetry, and a large island, opening effortlessly to the dining area and spacious family room-ideal for entertaining or relaxing at home. Upstairs, the private owner's suite offers a walk-in closet and full bath. Two additional bedrooms each feature walk-in closets and share a second full bath with double vanities. A second-floor laundry adds convenience right where you need it most. This home also includes a 2-car attached garage, smart home technology, and access to resort-style amenities including a clubhouse, pool, and pickleball court. Don't miss this opportunity to make Sienna Village your new home, schedule a tour today!

20. 2026-04-22
    listed $430,990 Active 1309-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1309 chars)

    Welcome home to 1002 Madisyn Lane, a brand-new townhome in Sienna Village by D. R. Horton, Valencia’s newest low-maintenance community in the Mars Area School District. This thoughtfully designed Kennedy floorplan offers the comfort of modern living with everyday conveniences buyers love. Enjoy a main-level entrance that makes life easier—perfect for unloading groceries straight from the car to the kitchen. The open first floor features 9-foot ceilings, luxury vinyl plank flooring, and a bright, airy layout that brings everyone together. The stylish kitchen includes quartz countertops, sleek cabinetry, and a pantry, opening effortlessly to the dining area and spacious family room—ideal for entertaining or relaxing at home. Upstairs, the private owner’s suite offers a walk-in closet and full bath, while two additional bedrooms—each with walk-in closets—share a second full bath with double vanities. A second-floor laundry adds convenience right where you need it most. This home also includes a 2-car attached garage, smart home technology, and access to resort-style amenities including a clubhouse, pool, and pickleball courts. Conveniently located near I-79, Route 228, and shopping and dining at The Streets of Cranberry, with an easy commute to Pittsburgh.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥96°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low 0% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 5 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $33,600
• − Mortgage interest: −$23,526
• − Property taxes: −$6,300
• − Insurance: −$2,100
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,688
• − Management: −$2,688
• − HOA: −$2,040
• − Depreciation: −$12,218
• Taxable loss: −$17,960
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$4,310
• After-tax cash flow: $-6,015/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Mars Area SD
• NCES district ID: 4214790
• Math proficiency: 58% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 78% ▼ -7.00%
• Median HH income: $84,859
• Composite: 60.96/100
• National rank: #806
• State rank: #24 of 539 in PA

Livability — Valencia

• Score: 55/100
• State rank: #1667
• US rank: #23633

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living B Crime B Employment B- Housing A- Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 9,770

Population outlook (Butler County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 190,777 people
• By 2030: 191,476 · +0.4%
• By 2040: 189,474 · -0.7%
• By 2050: 182,050 · -4.6%
• By 2075: 159,526 · -16.4%
• By 2100: 129,028 · -32.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (95%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 95% Hispanic / Latino 3% Black 1% Two or more races 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 8% Serbian 4% Slovak 3%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada, Jamaica, Guatemala
• Languages at home: 97% English-only · Spanish 3%

Political lean MEDSL · Butler

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+32.2) · D 33.5% · R 65.7%
• 2008→2024 swing: -4.8pp toward R · 2008: -27.4pp · 2024: -32.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+32.2 2020: R+32.5 2016: R+37.5 2012: R+34.9 2008: R+27.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -1.27%
• Current HPI: 276.1662
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.68%
• F500 in state: 34

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in PA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	2	$309B
▸Insurance	2	$27B
▸Telecommunications / Media	1	$124B
▸Industrial Distribution	1	$22B
▸Financial Services	1	$20B
▸Chemicals / Materials	1	$18B

Price history

-0.2% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-12 Price Changed $429,990 Zillow
• 2026-05-11 Price Changed $429,990 West Penn MLS
• 2026-04-23 Listed $430,990 Zillow
• 2026-04-22 Listed $430,990 West Penn MLS