1206 Middle Line Hwy

Noyack, NY 11963

$2,549,000B

4 bd · 2.5 ba · 2,424 sqft · Built 2014 · SingleFamily · Active · 248 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $27,061/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$13,367
• Tax + insurance: −$1,512
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$5,683
• Net cashflow: $6,499/mo
• Annual: $77,991/yr
• Cap rate: 9.35%
• Cash-on-cash: 10.93%
• DSCR: 1.49
• 1% rule: 1.06%
• Cash to close: $713,720

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $2.55M.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $6k ($78k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($27k rent vs $2.55M).
• It's been on market 248 days — a 12% lower offer ($2.24M) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $2.24M (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• In year one you build about $252k of equity ($18k loan paydown + $234k appreciation (9.2% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 57/100 on livability (#1,084 in NY) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+; Watch: schools C-, housing D+, amenities F.
• Sag Harbor Union Free School District (suburban): math 54% / reading 70% proficiency, ranked #175 of 590 in NY (top 30%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 8% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+10.8%/yr); 66 active listings in the ZIP; 7 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 23d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 1,366 units permitted in Suffolk County in 2024 (216 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Suffolk County population projected to shrink 5% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• 7 sale attempts since 6y ago; this cycle's ask is 4535% above the opening price — seller raised mid-cycle; expect resistance to lowballs.
• At projected returns (9.2% appreciation + 8.0% rent growth), your $714k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$404k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 9.4% vs local median 7.1% in Noyack — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• At $27,061/mo this rent would consume 254% of the median local household income ($128k/yr) (locally 95% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 248 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.