16432 Incline Trail Lot 10a Trl

Seligman, AZ 86046

$225,000D-

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,040 sqft · Built 2011 · SingleFamily · Active · 138 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,351/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,180
• Tax + insurance: −$141
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$284
• Net cashflow: $-254/mo
• Annual: $-3,047/yr
• Cap rate: 4.94%
• Cash-on-cash: -4.84%
• DSCR: 0.78
• 1% rule: 0.60%
• Cash to close: $63,000

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $225k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-254 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $180k (19.9% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $135k (40.0% below list).
• It's been on market 138 days — a 12% lower offer ($198k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $135k (40.0% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• In year one you build about $24k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $22k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 62/100 on livability (#127 in AZ) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, cost of living A+; Watch: schools F, crime F, amenities F.
• Williams Unified District (4193) (town): math 23% / reading 25% proficiency, ranked #163 of 249 in AZ (top 66%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Market conditions: 657 active listings in the ZIP; 698 units permitted in Coconino County in 2024 (354 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Coconino County population projected at +20% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 5 sale attempts since 4y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $27k; list at $225k implies a 733% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$39k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 4.9% vs local median 4.0% in Seligman — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 138 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 40% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.