16432 Incline Trail Lot 10a Trl · Seligman, AZ 86046

$225,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,040 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 138 Days on market

Built 2011 12 ac lot

---

Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• Cash flow +7.8/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.1/10.0
• DSCR +1.8/10.0
• 1% rule +1.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

A true off grid paradise awaits! Live freely without utility bills! Home had functioned on Propane Generator but Seller installed new solar and has re-shingled the south side of home per 'solar code'. Now you can enjoy this beautiful home worry free with the solar system & generator! Enjoy this 2 bedroom, 1 bath home on 11.88 acres. Large laundry/storage room, bright and open living/kitchen/dining combo with 2 large decks to enjoy the views of Mount Floyd and Round Mountain. Or relax by the fire on the large compass flagstone patio. Detached Storage Room with 2 extra closets. Great for AirBNB, year-round living or seasonal retreat! Recommend SUV or decent clearance vehicle. Property located in Hunting Unit 10. Buyer to verify important information. Possible seller financing contact for details!

Key facts

• Large decks
• Propane generator
• Views of mount floyd

Tags

• PROPANE GENERATOR
• SOLAR INSTALLATION CREDIT
• LARGE LAUNDRY STORAGE ROOM
• LARGE DECKS
• VIEWS OF MOUNT FLOYD
• VIEWS OF ROUND MOUNTAIN

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $225k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-254 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $180k (19.9% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $135k (40.0% below list).
• Recommended offer: $135k (40.0% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 4.9% vs local median 4.0% in Seligman — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 62/100 on livability (#127 in AZ) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, cost of living A+; Watch: schools F, crime F, amenities F.
• Williams Unified District (4193) (town): math 23% / reading 25% proficiency, ranked #163 of 249 in AZ (top 66%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Market conditions: 657 active listings in the ZIP; 698 units permitted in Coconino County in 2024 (354 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $24k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $22k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Coconino County population projected at +20% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$39k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 138 days — a 12% lower offer ($198k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 5 sale attempts since 4y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $27k; list at $225k implies a 733% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $135,099 (40.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 138 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 40% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.60% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.94%
• Cash-on-cash: -4.84%
• DSCR: 0.78
• GRM: 13.9

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 20.8%
• Equity multiple: 2.69×
• Total profit: $106,243
• Equity at exit: $202,698

10-year hold

• IRR: 18.9%
• Equity multiple: 6.16×
• Total profit: $325,343
• Equity at exit: $437,126

Cash invested: $63,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Arizona: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day pay-or-quit; AZ courts known for speed; no state rent control; cities preempted by state law.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 86046

• Home prices YoY: 4.3%
• Active inventory: 657
• Price-to-rent: 13.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,351 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,180
• Tax from tax record: −$48 /mo · $571/yr
• Insurance: −$94
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$284
• Net cashflow: $-254

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,672

Max offer price $180,138

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $56,250
• Closing costs: $6,750
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 29 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $225,000 Active 138 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $225,000 Active 137 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $225,000 Active 136 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $225,000 Active 135 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $225,000 Active 134 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $225,000 Active 132 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $225,000 Active 131 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $225,000 Active 129 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $225,000 Active 128 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $225,000 Active 127 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $225,000 Active 126 DOM
12. 2026-06-05
    days on market $225,000 Active 123 DOM
13. 2026-06-03
    days on market $225,000 Active 122 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    days on market $225,000 Active 121 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $225,000 Active 120 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $225,000 Active 119 DOM
17. 2026-05-30
    days on market $225,000 Active 118 DOM
18. 2026-05-18
    historical
19. 2026-02-01
    listed $225,000 Active 809-char remark

    Show marketing remark (809 chars)

    A true off grid paradise awaits! Live freely without utility bills! Home had functioned on Propane Generator but Seller installed new solar and has re-shingled the south side of home per 'solar code'. Now you can enjoy this beautiful home worry free with the solar system & generator! Enjoy this 2 bedroom, 1 bath home on 11.88 acres. Large laundry/storage room, bright and open living/kitchen/dining combo with 2 large decks to enjoy the views of Mount Floyd and Round Mountain. Or relax by the fire on the large compass flagstone patio. Detached Storage Room with 2 extra closets. Great for AirBNB, year-round living or seasonal retreat! Recommend SUV or decent clearance vehicle. Property located in Hunting Unit 10. Buyer to verify important information. Possible seller financing contact for details!

20. 2025-05-13
    historical
21. 2025-05-02
    historical
22. 2025-05-01
    listed $245,000 Active
23. 2024-07-22
    price $259,000
24. 2024-07-22
    price $259,000
25. 2024-07-19
    listed $269,000 Active
26. 2024-05-01
    listed $269,000 Active
27. 2023-03-31
    historical
28. 2022-04-01
    listed $219,900
29. 2003-08-21
    soldstatus $27,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast AZ · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $571 · $48/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,485 · $124/mo
• Expected delta: +$914/yr (+$76/mo · 160.2%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 6 d/yr ≥90°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $16,212
• − Mortgage interest: −$12,603
• − Property taxes: −$571
• − Insurance: −$1,125
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,297
• − Management: −$1,297
• − Depreciation: −$6,545
• Taxable loss: −$7,227
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,734
• After-tax cash flow: $-1,313/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Williams Unified District (4193)
• NCES district ID: 0409310
• Math proficiency: 23% ▼ -13.00%
• Reading proficiency: 25% ▼ -14.00%
• Median HH income: $43,336
• Composite: 20.59/100
• National rank: #8553
• State rank: #163 of 249 in AZ

Livability — Seligman

• Score: 62/100
• State rank: #127
• US rank: #16174

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment A+ Housing C Health & safety F User ratings A-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 6,669

Population outlook (Coconino County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 150,645 people
• By 2030: 156,857 · +4.1%
• By 2040: 168,714 · +12.0%
• By 2050: 181,082 · +20.2%
• By 2075: 218,399 · +45.0%
• By 2100: 238,853 · +58.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (66%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 66% Hispanic / Latino 26% Two or more races 12% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 16%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 4% Lithuanian 2% Romanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Canada
• Languages at home: 89% English-only · Spanish 9%

Political lean MEDSL · Coconino

• 2024 margin: D (+19.9) · D 59.2% · R 39.4% · Other 1.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: +2.9pp toward D · 2008: 17.0pp · 2024: 19.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+19.9 2020: D+24.1 2016: D+19.4 2012: D+14.9 2008: D+17.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 19.78%
• Current HPI: 474.3252
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.54%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AZ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	2	$13B
▸Mining / Metals	1	$23B
▸Environmental Services	1	$16B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$14B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$9B
▸Homebuilding	1	$8B

Price history

+733.3% since first listed

12 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-18 Listing Removed — PAARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-02-01 Listed $225,000 PAARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-05-13 Listing Removed — NAZMLS
• 2025-05-02 Listing Removed — PAARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-05-01 Listed $245,000 PAARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-07-22 Price Changed $259,000 NAZMLS
• 2024-07-22 Price Changed $259,000 PAARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-07-19 Listed $269,000 NAZMLS
• 2024-05-01 Listed $269,000 PAARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2023-03-31 Listing Removed — ARMLS
• 2022-04-01 Listed $219,900 ARMLS
• 2003-08-21 Sold (Public Records) $27,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+19.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $571 · +2.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.