321 43rd St

Van Buren, AR 72956

$140,000D

3 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,150 sqft · Built 1975 · SingleFamily · Pending · 177 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,080/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$734
• Tax + insurance: −$152
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$227
• Net cashflow: $-32/mo
• Annual: $-388/yr
• Cap rate: 6.02%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.99%
• DSCR: 0.96
• 1% rule: 0.77%
• Cash to close: $39,200

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/1.5-bath single-family listed at $140k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-32 ($-388/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $134k (4.1% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $108k (22.8% below list).
• It's been on market 177 days — a 12% lower offer ($123k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $108k (22.8% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $968 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 69/100 on livability (#75 in AR) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A; Watch: employment D, crime D-, amenities F.
• Van Buren School District (suburban): math 41% / reading 41% proficiency, ranked #62 of 238 in AR (top 26%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: James R. Tate Elem. School (math 32% / reading 27%, grade F, #305 of 454 statewide, top 71%, 457 students, 71% FRL); Butterfield Junior High School (math 38% / reading 32%, grade F, #122 of 201 statewide, top 61%, 613 students, 73% FRL); Van Buren High School (math 25% / reading 44%, grade F, #92 of 292 statewide, top 37%, 1,228 students, 48% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+4.8%/yr); 249 active listings in the ZIP; 7 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 15d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 47 units permitted in Crawford County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Crawford County population projected to shrink 7% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• Current owner paid $70k; list at $140k implies a 100% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 6.0% vs local median 3.8% in Van Buren — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 177 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 23% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1975 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.