1621 Coronado Ave

La Presa, CA 91977

$449,000D

7 bd · 3.0 ba · 3,109 sqft · Built 2021 · SingleFamily · Active · 177 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $4,172/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,355
• Tax + insurance: −$981
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$876
• Net cashflow: $-40/mo
• Annual: $-483/yr
• Cap rate: 6.19%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.38%
• DSCR: 0.98
• 1% rule: 0.93%
• Cash to close: $125,720

Investor read

• This is a 7-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $449k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-40 ($-483/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $442k (1.6% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $417k (7.1% below list).
• It's been on market 177 days — a 12% lower offer ($395k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $395k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $13k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 60/100 on livability (#571 in CA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, employment B, housing B; Watch: health & safety D, crime F, cost of living F.
• La Mesa-Spring Valley (suburban): math 41% / reading 53% proficiency, ranked #478 of 1,400 in CA (top 34%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Sweetwater Springs Elementary (435 students, 69% FRL); Sci Tech Engr Arts And Math Acad At La Presa (718 students, 81% FRL); Monte Vista High (math 32% / reading 60%, grade D-, #409 of 1,170 statewide, top 36%, 1,569 students, 76% FRL) — zoned schools average 76% FRL vs 46% district-wide (30 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 161 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; solid renter incomes; 11,759 units permitted in San Diego County in 2024 (7,244 in 5+ unit buildings).
• San Diego County population projected at +20% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 11 sale attempts since 18y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $151k (25%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $60k; list at $449k implies a 648% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 6.2% vs local median 2.9% in La Presa — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• At $4,172/mo this rent would consume 50% of the median local household income ($100k/yr) (locally 2007% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 177 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.