1223 Cozy Cir

Rock Creek, AL 35023

$229,000D+

5 bd · 3.0 ba · 3,388 sqft · Built 1993 · SingleFamily · Active · 161 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,769/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,201
• Tax + insurance: −$204
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$371
• Net cashflow: $-7/mo
• Annual: $-88/yr
• Cap rate: 6.25%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.14%
• DSCR: 0.99
• 1% rule: 0.77%
• Cash to close: $64,120

Investor read

• This is a 5-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $229k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-7 ($-88/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $228k (0.6% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $177k (22.8% below list).
• It's been on market 161 days — a 12% lower offer ($202k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $177k (22.8% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• In year one you build about $209 of equity ($2k loan paydown + $-1k appreciation (-0.6% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 57/100 on livability (#401 in AL) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A-; Watch: employment D, schools F, amenities F.
• Jefferson County (suburban): math 9% / reading 32% proficiency, ranked #104 of 129 in AL (top 81%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.6%/yr); 250 active listings in the ZIP; 2,114 units permitted in Jefferson County in 2024 (556 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Jefferson County population projected to shrink 4% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• Current owner paid $165k; 39% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• This rent runs 30% of the median local income ($70k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 161 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 23% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.