1223 Cozy Cir · Rock Creek, AL 35023

$229,000

5 bd · 3.0 ba · 3,388 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 161 Days on market

Built 1993 0.48 ac lot $68/sqft · 51% below area Est $264k · 13% under

---

Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +13.5/15.0
• Cash flow +13.1/30.0
• Appreciation +4.7/10.0
• DSCR +3.9/10.0
• Rent growth +2.9/5.0
• Livability +2.9/5.0
• 1% rule +2.7/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.8/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Honey stop the car! This beautiful 5 bedroom and 3 full bath home is beautiful, This home has a huge backyard great for the kids to play. This home is a must see. Needs a little work it’s being sold as short sell

Key facts

• Huge backyard
• 0.48 acre lot
• Built 1993

Tags

• HUGE BACKYARD

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 5-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $229k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-7 ($-88/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $228k (0.6% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $177k (22.8% below list).
• Recommended offer: $177k (22.8% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 57/100 on livability (#401 in AL) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A-; Watch: employment D, schools F, amenities F.
• Jefferson County (suburban): math 9% / reading 32% proficiency, ranked #104 of 129 in AL (top 81%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.6%/yr); 250 active listings in the ZIP; 2,114 units permitted in Jefferson County in 2024 (556 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 30% of the median local income ($70k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $209 of equity ($2k loan paydown + $-1k appreciation (-0.6% local appreciation)).
• Jefferson County population projected to shrink 4% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 161 days — a 12% lower offer ($202k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $165k; 39% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $176,860 (22.8% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 161 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 23% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.77% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.25%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.14%
• DSCR: 0.99
• GRM: 10.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $263,993
• List price: $229,000
• Delta: -13.26%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 10 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-0.6% appreciation · 1.6% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -5.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.75×
• Total profit: $-16,088
• Equity at exit: $59,706

10-year hold

• IRR: -0.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.97×
• Total profit: $-1,724
• Equity at exit: $66,555

Cash invested: $64,120 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Alabama: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+15
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Right-to-evict in 7 days for non-payment; no rent control; preempted statewide; courts move quickly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 35023

• Home prices YoY: -0.1%
• Rents YoY: 1.6%
• Active inventory: 250
• Price-to-rent: 10.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,769 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,201
• Tax from tax record: −$108 /mo · $1,299/yr
• Insurance: −$95
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$371
• Net cashflow: $-7

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,778

Max offer price $227,702

Occupancy floor 95%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $57,250
• Closing costs: $6,870
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 19 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $229,000 Active 161 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $229,000 Active 160 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $229,000 Active 159 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $229,000 Active 158 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $229,000 Active 156 DOM
6. 2026-06-10
   days on market $229,000 Active 153 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $229,000 Active 152 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $229,000 Active 151 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $229,000 Active 150 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $229,000 Active 146 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $229,000 Active 145 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $229,000 Active 144 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $229,000 Active 143 DOM
14. 2026-01-08
    listed $229,000 Active 218-char remark

    Show marketing remark (218 chars)

    Honey stop the car! This beautiful 5 bedroom and 3 full bath home is beautiful, This home has a huge backyard great for the kids to play. This home is a must see. Needs a little work it’s being sold as short sell

15. 2023-07-08
    price $250,000
16. 2004-05-07
    soldstatus $165,000
17. 2004-05-07
    soldstatus $165,000
18. 2000-10-04
    soldstatus $156,900
19. 1993-03-30
    soldstatus $107,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast AL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,299 · $108/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,299 · $108/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 27% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 4 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $21,223
• − Mortgage interest: −$12,828
• − Property taxes: −$1,299
• − Insurance: −$1,145
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,698
• − Management: −$1,698
• − Depreciation: −$6,662
• Taxable loss: −$4,106
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$985
• After-tax cash flow: $897/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Jefferson County
• NCES district ID: 0101920
• Math proficiency: 9% ▼ -24.00%
• Reading proficiency: 32% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $51,712
• Composite: 18.4/100
• National rank: #8937
• State rank: #104 of 129 in AL

Livability — Rock Creek

• Score: 57/100
• State rank: #401
• US rank: #22317

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment D Housing A- Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Rock Creek, AL
• County: Jefferson County · 527,445 people
• City population: 25,221
• Metro: Birmingham-Hoover, AL
• Population (ZIP): 25,533
• Household income: $69,863
• Rent vs Own: 15.1% rent · 84.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 247.0

Population outlook (Jefferson County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 669,185 people
• By 2030: 669,694 · +0.1%
• By 2040: 661,388 · -1.2%
• By 2050: 643,086 · -3.9%
• By 2075: 577,267 · -13.7%
• By 2100: 474,758 · -29.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.56)
• Race & ethnicity: White 58% Black 30% Hispanic / Latino 7% Two or more races 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 5%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 1% Lithuanian 1% Serbian 1%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada
• Languages at home: 93% English-only · Spanish 7%

Political lean MEDSL · Jefferson

• 2024 margin: D (+10.4) · D 54.6% · R 44.2% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: +5.4pp toward D · 2008: 5.1pp · 2024: 10.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+10.4 2020: D+13.2 2016: D+7.2 2012: D+6.0 2008: D+5.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -0.60%
• Current HPI: 389.38
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.60%
• Metro: Birmingham-Hoover, AL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.94%
• F500 in state: 4

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	1	$8B
▸Healthcare	1	$5B

Price history

+114.0% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-01-08 Listed $229,000 Greater Alabama MLS
• 2023-07-08 Price Changed $250,000 Greater Alabama MLS
• 2004-05-07 Sold (Public Records) $165,000 Public Records
• 2004-05-07 Sold (Public Records) $165,000 Public Records
• 2000-10-04 Sold (Public Records) $156,900 Public Records
• 1993-03-30 Sold (Public Records) $107,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+3.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,299 · +2.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.