1 bd · 1.0 ba ·
384 sqft ·
Built 1980
· Manufactured
· Pending
· 186 DOM
Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)
Estimated rent
$1,298/mo
Mortgage (P&I)
−$262
Tax + insurance
−$151
HOA
−$183
Vac / Maint / Mgmt
−$272
Net cashflow
$430/mo
Annual
$5,154/yr
Cap rate
18.22%
Cash-on-cash
42.60%
DSCR
2.90
1% rule
2.60%
Cash to close
$13,972
Investor read
This is a 1-bed/1.0-bath manufactured listed at $50k.
At list price, monthly cash flow is $430 ($5k/yr) — positive.
The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $50k).
It's been on market 186 days — a 12% lower offer ($44k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
Recommended offer: $44k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $345 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $1k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
Location reads 81/100 on livability (#101 in FL, #1,528 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: commute A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment D+, crime D, amenities F.
Manatee (suburban): math 54% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #26 of 73 in FL (top 36%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $66/mo.
Market conditions: Rents falling (-5.4%/yr); 345 active listings in the ZIP; 7,472 units permitted in Manatee County in 2024 (1,782 in 5+ unit buildings).
Manatee County population projected at +43% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
5 sale attempts since 13y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $19k (28%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
Current owner paid $25k; list at $50k implies a 100% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 0.0% rent growth), your $14k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
Climate carrying-cost: severe flood risk; severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→26/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
Cap rate 18.2% vs local median 3.6% in Bradenton — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
Questions for listing agent
It's been on market 186 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
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· Data 3 weeks agocashflowre.app · 2026-05-29