4 bd · 1.0 ba ·
1,900 sqft ·
Built 1924
· SingleFamily
· Pending
· 4 DOM
Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)
Estimated rent
$1,561/mo
Mortgage (P&I)
−$749
Tax + insurance
−$102
HOA
−$0
Vac / Maint / Mgmt
−$328
Net cashflow
$381/mo
Annual
$4,576/yr
Cap rate
9.50%
Cash-on-cash
11.44%
DSCR
1.51
1% rule
1.09%
Cash to close
$40,012
Investor read
This is a 4-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $143k.
At list price, monthly cash flow is $381 ($5k/yr) — positive.
The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $143k).
Only 4 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
In year one you build about $15k of equity ($988 loan paydown + $14k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
Location reads 80/100 on livability (#104 in NY, #1,589 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: commute A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment D, schools D-, crime F.
Utica City School District (urban): math 33% / reading 38% proficiency, ranked #562 of 590 in NY (top 95%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 71% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
Watch-outs: built in 1924 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
Market conditions: 143 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 44d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 100% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 204 units permitted in Oneida County in 2024 (68 in 5+ unit buildings).
Oneida County population projected at -12% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $40k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
By year 3, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$39k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
Cap rate 9.5% vs local median 7.7% in Utica — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.
This rent runs 36% of the median local income ($53k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.
Questions for listing agent
Built in 1924 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.
CashFlowRE · CFR-Q5JGS70C02XJM1
· Data 3 weeks agocashflowre.app · 2026-05-29