4 bd · 2.5 ba ·
1,741 sqft ·
Built 2025
· Townhouse
· Active
· 219 DOM
Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)
Estimated rent
$2,064/mo
Mortgage (P&I)
−$1,217
Tax + insurance
−$387
HOA
−$30
Vac / Maint / Mgmt
−$433
Net cashflow
$-2/mo
Annual
$-30/yr
Cap rate
6.28%
Cash-on-cash
-0.05%
DSCR
1.00
1% rule
0.89%
Cash to close
$64,957
Investor read
This is a 4-bed/2.5-bath townhouse listed at $232k. Condition is rated excellent.
At list price, monthly cash flow is $-2 ($-30/yr) — negative.
To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $232k (0.2% below list).
To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $206k (11.0% below list).
It's been on market 219 days — a 12% lower offer ($204k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
Recommended offer: $204k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
Location reads 70/100 on livability (#350 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime A; Watch: employment D+, amenities F, commute F.
Klein ISD (suburban): math 41% / reading 48% proficiency, ranked #213 of 826 in TX (top 26%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
Zoned schools: Lemm El (math 44% / reading 51%, grade D, #989 of 4,322 statewide, top 23%, 625 students, 47% FRL); Schindewolf Int (math 31% / reading 43%, grade F, #756 of 1,662 statewide, top 47%, 1,152 students, 55% FRL); Klein H S (math 58% / reading 67%, grade B-, #234 of 1,632 statewide, top 14%, 3,352 students, 45% FRL).
Market conditions: 518 active listings in the ZIP; 23 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 40d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 65% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 29,883 units permitted in Harris County in 2024 (8,621 in 5+ unit buildings).
Harris County population projected at +47% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $30k (11%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
Cap rate 6.3% vs local median 4.5% in Sulphur Springs — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
This rent runs 35% of the median local income ($70k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.
Questions for listing agent
What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
It's been on market 219 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
CashFlowRE · CFR-Q63017AHTFSBJ4
· Data 7 h agocashflowre.app · 2026-05-29