553 Friedenstein Rd

Hankins, NY 12760

$149,500D-

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,057 sqft · Built 1988 · SingleFamily · Active · 7 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,229/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$784
• Tax + insurance: −$333
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$258
• Net cashflow: $-147/mo
• Annual: $-1,760/yr
• Cap rate: 5.12%
• Cash-on-cash: -4.20%
• DSCR: 0.81
• 1% rule: 0.82%
• Cash to close: $41,860

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $150k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-147 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $124k (17.3% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $123k (17.8% below list).
• Only 7 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Recommended offer: $123k (17.8% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• In year one you build about $8k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $7k appreciation (4.6% local appreciation)).
• Location reads: area grade D — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Sullivan West Central School District (rural): math 45% / reading 47% proficiency, ranked #436 of 590 in NY (top 74%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Sullivan West Elementary School (math 41% / reading 48%, grade F, #1,277 of 2,108 statewide, top 64%, 571 students, 37% FRL); Sullivan West High School At Lake Huntington (math 52% / reading 47%, grade D, #974 of 1,100 statewide, top 91%, 477 students, 39% FRL).
• Market conditions: 12 active listings in the ZIP; 739 units permitted in Sullivan County in 2024 (5 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Sullivan County population projected at -24% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 2 sale attempts since 10y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $27k; list at $150k implies a 462% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• By year 5, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$34k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Cap rate 5.1% vs local median 1.7% in Hankins — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.