553 Friedenstein Rd · Hankins, NY 12760

$149,500

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,057 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 7 Days on market

Built 1988 2.26 ac lot

---

Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +8.1/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Appreciation +7.3/10.0
• Schools +4.0/10.0
• 1% rule +3.2/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• DSCR +2.1/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Mixed condition mobile with large additions. Electric: Circuit Breaker, BasementDescription: Piers, LandFeatures: Mature Trees,

Key facts

• Short drive to lakes
• Low taxes
• Flat lawn

Tags

• SHORT DRIVE TO RIVERS
• SHORT DRIVE TO LAKES
• SHORT DRIVE TO STATE LAND
• RESTAURANTS AND SHOPS
• FLAT LAWN
• LOW TAXES

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Driveway; No carport
• Utilities: Electric service (NYSEG); Septic tank; Cable available; Electricity connected; Propane; Sewer connected; Water connected
• Home design: Manufactured house; Single-family residence; One level
• Construction: Vinyl and wood siding
• Exterior features: Vinyl siding; Wood siding; Not waterfront

Interior

• Kitchen: Gas oven; Gas range
• Bedrooms: Bedroom on the first floor
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Baseboard heating; Electric heating; Wood heating; No central air conditioning
• Interior features: First-floor bedroom; First-floor full bathroom; Galley-style kitchen; Walk-through kitchen; Dining area; Home office
• Laundry & utility: Gas water heater

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $150k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-147 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $124k (17.3% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $123k (17.8% below list).
• Recommended offer: $123k (17.8% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.1% vs local median 1.7% in Hankins — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade D — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Sullivan West Central School District (rural): math 45% / reading 47% proficiency, ranked #436 of 590 in NY (top 74%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Sullivan West Elementary School (math 41% / reading 48%, grade F, #1,277 of 2,108 statewide, top 64%, 571 students, 37% FRL); Sullivan West High School At Lake Huntington (math 52% / reading 47%, grade D, #974 of 1,100 statewide, top 91%, 477 students, 39% FRL).
• Market conditions: 12 active listings in the ZIP; 739 units permitted in Sullivan County in 2024 (5 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $8k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $7k appreciation (4.6% local appreciation)).
• Sullivan County population projected at -24% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• By year 5, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$34k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• Only 7 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 2 sale attempts since 10y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $27k; list at $150k implies a 462% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Recommended offer $122,855 (17.8% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.82% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.12%
• Cash-on-cash: -4.20%
• DSCR: 0.81
• GRM: 10.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $53,907
• Comps found: 1

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
59 Raspberry Park Rd	0.52mi	3/1.0	1,080 (+2%)	20mo	$55,000	$51	55

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

4.61% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 8.3%
• Equity multiple: 1.52×
• Total profit: $21,888
• Equity at exit: $81,209

10-year hold

• IRR: 10.2%
• Equity multiple: 2.82×
• Total profit: $76,038
• Equity at exit: $137,335

Cash invested: $41,860 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 12760

• Home prices YoY: 0.9%
• Active inventory: 12
• Price-to-rent: 10.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,229 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$784
• Tax from tax record: −$271 /mo · $3,251/yr
• Insurance: −$62
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$258
• Net cashflow: $-147

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,414

Max offer price $123,597

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $37,375
• Closing costs: $4,485
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 7 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $149,500 Active 7 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $149,500 Active 6 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $149,500 Active 5 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $149,500 Active 4 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $149,500 Active 2 DOM
6. 2026-06-12
   remarks 154-char remark
7. 2026-06-12
   listed $149,500 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $3,251 · $271/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,251 · $271/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥91°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 2% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $14,743
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,374
• − Property taxes: −$3,251
• − Insurance: −$748
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,179
• − Management: −$1,179
• − Depreciation: −$4,349
• Taxable loss: −$4,338
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,041
• After-tax cash flow: $-718/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Sullivan West Central School District
• NCES district ID: 3600023
• Math proficiency: 45% ▼ -7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 47% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $56,078
• Composite: 40.05/100
• National rank: #3817
• State rank: #436 of 590 in NY

Livability — Hankins

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 337

Population outlook (Sullivan County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 68,974 people
• By 2030: 65,609 · -4.9%
• By 2040: 58,878 · -14.6%
• By 2050: 52,500 · -23.9%
• By 2075: 39,941 · -42.1%
• By 2100: 28,880 · -58.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (78%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 78% Hispanic / Latino 18% Asian 4%
• Common ancestry: Scottish 7% Portuguese 4% Lithuanian 4%
• Foreign-born: 4% · China
• Languages at home: 99% English-only · Chinese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Sullivan

• 2024 margin: R (+16.7) · D 41.6% · R 58.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -26.2pp toward R · 2008: 9.5pp · 2024: -16.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+16.7 2020: R+9.2 2016: R+13.7 2012: D+10.4 2008: D+9.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 4.61%
• Current HPI: 526.7442
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+433.9% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-11 Listed $149,500 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2016-12-16 Sold (MLS) $26,600 HGMLS
• 2016-07-01 Listed $28,000 HGMLS

Property tax history

+1.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,251 · -0.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.