2347 Saratoga Bay Dr

West Palm Beach, FL 33409

$571,000D+

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,271 sqft · Built 1987 · SingleFamily · Pending · 94 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $5,069/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,994
• Tax + insurance: −$586
• HOA: −$516
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$1,064
• Net cashflow: $-92/mo
• Annual: $-1,104/yr
• Cap rate: 6.10%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.69%
• DSCR: 0.97
• 1% rule: 0.89%
• Cash to close: $159,880

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $571k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-92 ($-1k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $555k (2.8% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $507k (11.2% below list).
• It's been on market 94 days — a 9% lower offer ($520k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $507k (11.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $4k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $17k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 82/100 on livability (#75 in FL, #1,255 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: commute A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: employment C-, crime F.
• Palm Beach (suburban): math 46% / reading 53% proficiency, ranked #34 of 73 in FL (top 47%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Seminole Trails Elementary School (math 26% / reading 36%, grade F, #1,854 of 2,144 statewide, top 87%, 650 students, 73% FRL); Bear Lakes Middle School (math 19% / reading 33%, grade F, #506 of 571 statewide, top 89%, 842 students, 74% FRL); Palm Beach Lakes High School (math 17% / reading 26%, grade F, #546 of 667 statewide, top 82%, 2,688 students, 70% FRL) — zoned schools average 72% FRL vs 52% district-wide (20 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 26% at this address vs 50% district-wide (-23 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Palm Beach average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.1%/yr); 194 active listings in the ZIP; 18 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 27d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 3,974 units permitted in Palm Beach County in 2024 (1,012 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Palm Beach County population projected at +30% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 8 sale attempts since 28y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $44k (7%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $403k; 42% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 3→11/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 6.1% vs local median 3.8% in West Palm Beach — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• At $5,069/mo this rent would consume 91% of the median local household income ($67k/yr) (locally 1333% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 94 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 11% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.