118 Hughes Ave

Oildale, CA 93308

$170,000D+

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,125 sqft · Built 2024 · Other · Active · 76 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,420/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$891
• Tax + insurance: −$244
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$298
• Net cashflow: $-13/mo
• Annual: $-156/yr
• Cap rate: 6.20%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.33%
• DSCR: 0.99
• 1% rule: 0.84%
• Cash to close: $47,600

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath other listed at $170k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-13 ($-156/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $168k (1.4% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $142k (16.4% below list).
• It's been on market 76 days — a 6% lower offer ($160k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $142k (16.4% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 58/100 on livability (#680 in CA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: housing A+, schools B+; Watch: crime F, amenities F, commute F.
• Standard Elementary (suburban): math 16% / reading 27% proficiency, ranked #1,227 of 1,400 in CA (top 88%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 66% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.2%/yr); 307 active listings in the ZIP; 38 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 3d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 3,244 units permitted in Kern County in 2024 (73 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Kern County population projected at +17% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 5 sale attempts since 7y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $135k; 26% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.
• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→17/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 6.2% vs local median 3.9% in Oildale — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 76 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 16% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.