144 Lake Saponi Dr

Piney Mountain, VA 22923

$525,000C-

6 bd · 3.0 ba · 2,520 sqft · Built 1981 · MultiFamily · Pending · 71 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $5,224/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,753
• Tax + insurance: −$875
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$1,097
• Net cashflow: $499/mo
• Annual: $5,986/yr
• Cap rate: 7.43%
• Cash-on-cash: 4.07%
• DSCR: 1.18
• 1% rule: 1.00%
• Cash to close: $147,000

Investor read

• This is a 2 × 3.0-bed/1.5-bath units multifamily listed at $525k. Condition is rated good.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $499 ($6k/yr) — positive. Per door: $249/mo.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $522k (0.5% below list).
• It's been on market 71 days — a 6% lower offer ($494k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $494k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $4k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $16k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 67/100 on livability (#291 in VA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: health & safety C-, schools F, amenities F.
• Greene County Public School District (town): math 40% / reading 64% proficiency, ranked #88 of 131 in VA (top 67%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: 184 active listings in the ZIP; high-income renter base; 204 units permitted in Greene County in 2024 (34 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Greene County population projected at +6% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→17/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 7.4% vs local median 3.8% in Piney Mountain — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• At $5,224/mo this rent would consume 53% of the median local household income ($118k/yr) (locally 42% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 71 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Can we see the unit-by-unit rent roll, current vacancy, and any below-market leases? What's the average tenancy length?
• What capital expenditures (roof, boiler, parking lot, exteriors) have been made in the last 5 years, and what's planned in the next 2?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.