144 Lake Saponi Dr · Piney Mountain, VA 22923

$525,000

6 bd · 3.0 ba · 2,520 sqft · MultiFamily · 71 Days on market

Built 1981 Good condition 0.74 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +18.5/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +5.8/10.0
• 1% rule +5.0/10.0
• Schools +4.5/10.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Multi-family units

County records classify this as Multi-Family (2-4 Unit). Listing-text estimate: 2 units. confirmed

Listing remarks MLS

9 miles to Cville- Close to NGIC, DIA, etc- Turn Key and Move In Ready- Side by Side Brick Duplex just outside Cville. Each unit offers 3 Beds/1.5 Baths. This duplex has undergone a major renovation including ALL NEW Kitchens, NEW Quality Appliances, NEW Lighting, NEW W/ D, NEW Bathrooms, NEW LVP Flooring in Bathrooms, NEW Granite Countertops, Gorgeous SOLID OAK Hardwood Floors. .. and . .. . NEW Windows, NEW Roof, NEW HVAC on #7. Ready for your renters! Or move in one side and rent the other for income. Zillow lists market rent at over $2150+ for each unit- Off Street Parking, Large Lot, Private Decks. This is a well-done property waiting for the next savvy investor!

Key facts

• New lighting
• New kitchens
• New w d

Tags

• SIDE BY SIDE BRICK DUPLEX
• NEW KITCHENS
• NEW QUALITY APPLIANCES
• NEW LIGHTING
• NEW W D
• NEW BATHROOMS

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2 × 3.0-bed/1.5-bath units multifamily listed at $525k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $499 ($6k/yr) — positive. Per door: $249/mo.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $522k (0.5% below list).
• Recommended offer: $494k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 7.4% vs local median 3.8% in Piney Mountain — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 67/100 on livability (#291 in VA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: health & safety C-, schools F, amenities F.
• Greene County Public School District (town): math 40% / reading 64% proficiency, ranked #88 of 131 in VA (top 67%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: 184 active listings in the ZIP; high-income renter base; 204 units permitted in Greene County in 2024 (34 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $5,224/mo this rent would consume 53% of the median local household income ($118k/yr) (locally 42% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $4k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $16k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Greene County population projected at +6% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 71 days — a 6% lower offer ($494k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→17/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $493,500 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 71 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Can we see the unit-by-unit rent roll, current vacancy, and any below-market leases? What's the average tenancy length?
3. What capital expenditures (roof, boiler, parking lot, exteriors) have been made in the last 5 years, and what's planned in the next 2?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.00% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.43%
• Cash-on-cash: 4.07%
• DSCR: 1.18
• GRM: 8.4

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -9.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.64×
• Total profit: $-53,225
• Equity at exit: $78,279

10-year hold

• IRR: -0.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.97×
• Total profit: $-5,119
• Equity at exit: $45,392

Cash invested: $147,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning
• State Virginia: 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning · D+2
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

VRLTA gives some tenant protections; Northern Virginia courts slower; rural VA landlord-leaning.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 22923

• Home prices YoY: -3.6%
• Active inventory: 184
• Price-to-rent: 16.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $5,224 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,753
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$656 /mo · $7,875/yr
• Insurance: −$219
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$1,097
• Net cashflow: $499

Break-even live

Break-even rent $4,593

Max offer price $525,000

Occupancy floor 85%

2-unit breakdown (identical units grouped — click to expand)

Units	Beds	Baths	Est. rent
▸ 2× units	3.0	1.5	$5,224
Total (2 units)			$5,224

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $131,250
• Closing costs: $15,750
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 7 events

1. 2026-06-07
   statusdays on market $525,000 Pending 71 DOM
2. 2026-06-05
   days on market $525,000 Active 70 DOM
3. 2026-06-03
   days on market $525,000 Active 69 DOM
4. 2026-06-02
   remarks 699-char remark
5. 2026-06-02
   statusdays on market $525,000 Active 68 DOM
6. 2026-05-17
   status Pending 676-char remark

   Show marketing remark (676 chars)

   9 miles to Cville- Close to NGIC, DIA, etc- Turn Key and Move In Ready- Side by Side Brick Duplex just outside Cville. Each unit offers 3 Beds/1.5 Baths. This duplex has undergone a major renovation including ALL NEW Kitchens, NEW Quality Appliances, NEW Lighting, NEW W/ D, NEW Bathrooms, NEW LVP Flooring in Bathrooms, NEW Granite Countertops, Gorgeous SOLID OAK Hardwood Floors. .. and . .. . NEW Windows, NEW Roof, NEW HVAC on #7. Ready for your renters! Or move in one side and rent the other for income. Zillow lists market rent at over $2150+ for each unit- Off Street Parking, Large Lot, Private Decks. This is a well-done property waiting for the next savvy investor!

7. 2026-03-10
   listed $525,000 Active 676-char remark

   Show marketing remark (676 chars)

   9 miles to Cville- Close to NGIC, DIA, etc- Turn Key and Move In Ready- Side by Side Brick Duplex just outside Cville. Each unit offers 3 Beds/1.5 Baths. This duplex has undergone a major renovation including ALL NEW Kitchens, NEW Quality Appliances, NEW Lighting, NEW W/ D, NEW Bathrooms, NEW LVP Flooring in Bathrooms, NEW Granite Countertops, Gorgeous SOLID OAK Hardwood Floors. .. and . .. . NEW Windows, NEW Roof, NEW HVAC on #7. Ready for your renters! Or move in one side and rent the other for income. Zillow lists market rent at over $2150+ for each unit- Off Street Parking, Large Lot, Private Decks. This is a well-done property waiting for the next savvy investor!

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥102°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 3% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $62,688
• − Mortgage interest: −$29,408
• − Property taxes: −$7,875
• − Insurance: −$2,625
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$5,015
• − Management: −$5,015
• − Depreciation: −$15,273
• Taxable loss: −$2,523
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$606
• After-tax cash flow: $6,591/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab

This well-maintained, recently renovated duplex is move-in ready and offers a great investment opportunity.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting exterior brick — Enhances curb appeal and value
• Both Replace light fixtures — Modernizes and improves aesthetics
• Both Install smart home devices — Enhances convenience and marketability

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Painting exterior brick — Enhances curb appeal and value ↑
• Both Replace light fixtures — Modernizes and improves aesthetics ↑
• Both Install smart home devices — Enhances convenience and marketability ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Greene County Public School District
• NCES district ID: 5101710
• Math proficiency: 40% ▼ -37.00%
• Reading proficiency: 64% ▼ -7.00%
• Median HH income: $59,129
• Composite: 45.22/100
• National rank: #2668
• State rank: #88 of 131 in VA

Livability — Piney Mountain

• Score: 67/100
• State rank: #291
• US rank: #10406

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living B+ Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety C- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Orange County · 21,992 people
• Metro: Charlottesville, VA
• Population (ZIP): 6,435
• Household income: $118,125
• Rent vs Own: 25.2% rent · 74.8% own
• Severe rent burden: 42.0

Population outlook (Greene County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 20,465 people
• By 2030: 20,958 · +2.4%
• By 2040: 21,619 · +5.6%
• By 2050: 21,699 · +6.0%
• By 2075: 21,656 · +5.8%
• By 2100: 20,156 · -1.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (89%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 89% Black 5% Two or more races 5% Asian 1%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 5% Portuguese 3% Italian 3%
• Foreign-born: 3%
• Languages at home: 97% English-only · Other Asian/Pacific 1% French/Haitian/Cajun 1% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Greene

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+24.7) · D 37.0% · R 61.7% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -2.9pp toward R · 2008: -21.9pp · 2024: -24.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+24.7 2020: R+23.9 2016: R+31.8 2012: R+25.3 2008: R+21.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -11.41%
• Current HPI: 303.0348
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Charlottesville, VA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.40%
• F500 in state: 50

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in VA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Aerospace / Defense	4	$236B
▸Technology / Defense	3	$32B
▸Financial Services	2	$176B
▸Utilities	2	$27B
▸Insurance	2	$25B
▸Technology	2	$15B

Price history

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-17 Pending — CAAR
• 2026-03-10 Listed $525,000 CAAR