1616 Kinsman Ave

Jacksonville, FL 32221

$199,990C

3 bd · 3.0 ba · 1,404 sqft · Built 2026 · SingleFamily · Pending · 17 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,936/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,049
• Tax + insurance: −$148
• HOA: −$160
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$407
• Net cashflow: $172/mo
• Annual: $2,065/yr
• Cap rate: 7.33%
• Cash-on-cash: 3.69%
• DSCR: 1.16
• 1% rule: 0.97%
• Cash to close: $55,997

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $200k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $172 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $194k (3.2% below list).
• It's been on market 17 days — a 2% lower offer ($197k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $194k (3.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 83/100 on livability (#50 in FL, #911 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, housing A+.
• Duval (urban): math 46% / reading 45% proficiency, ranked #48 of 73 in FL (top 66%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Crystal Springs Elementary School (math 51% / reading 41%, grade D-, #1,234 of 2,144 statewide, top 58%, 907 students, 66% FRL); Edward H. White High School (math 31% / reading 25%, grade F, #464 of 667 statewide, top 70%, 1,538 students, 64% FRL) — zoned schools average 65% FRL vs 49% district-wide (16 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.1%/yr); 219 active listings in the ZIP; 21 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 15d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 6,503 units permitted in Duval County in 2024 (1,131 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Duval County population projected at +19% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• Cap rate 7.3% vs local median 3.9% in Jacksonville — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.