1616 Kinsman Ave · Jacksonville, FL 32221

$199,990

3 bd · 3.0 ba · 1,404 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 17 Days on market

Built 2026 1,742 sqft lot Est $272k · 27% under $160/mo HOA · 8% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +18.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +5.6/10.0
• 1% rule +4.7/10.0
• Livability +4.2/5.0
• Schools +3.9/10.0
• Rent growth +3.0/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

QUICK MOVE-IN! Kirkwood Grove located in a prime location, just minutes from I-295, I-10, and the First Coast Expressway, and 20-30 minutes from downtown Jacksonville and the Naval Air Station. This Flamingo features: White cabinetry throughout home. With Stainless steel appliances and kitchen island. Separate dining space. Your oversized rear patio is ready for you to enjoy this summer. 3 bedrooms are located upstairs, with owner's bedroom tucked at the rear of the home. Private bathroom with dual vanities opens to your large closet. At the front of the home, you will find two bedrooms, shared hall bath plus your full size washer and dryer. Keep your car cool this summer, with it tucked aw

Key facts

• Kitchen island
• Private bathroom
• Oversized rear patio

Tags

• OVERSIZED REAR PATIO
• WHITE CABINETRY
• STAINLESS STEEL APPLIANCES
• KITCHEN ISLAND
• SEPARATE DINING SPACE
• PRIVATE BATHROOM

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $200k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $172 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $194k (3.2% below list).
• Recommended offer: $194k (3.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 7.3% vs local median 3.9% in Jacksonville — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 83/100 on livability (#50 in FL, #911 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, housing A+.
• Duval (urban): math 46% / reading 45% proficiency, ranked #48 of 73 in FL (top 66%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Crystal Springs Elementary School (math 51% / reading 41%, grade D-, #1,234 of 2,144 statewide, top 58%, 907 students, 66% FRL); Edward H. White High School (math 31% / reading 25%, grade F, #464 of 667 statewide, top 70%, 1,538 students, 64% FRL) — zoned schools average 65% FRL vs 49% district-wide (16 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.1%/yr); 219 active listings in the ZIP; 21 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 15d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 6,503 units permitted in Duval County in 2024 (1,131 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Duval County population projected at +19% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 17 days — a 2% lower offer ($197k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $193,573 (3.2% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.97% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.33%
• Cash-on-cash: 3.69%
• DSCR: 1.16
• GRM: 8.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $272,376
• Comps found: 8

Show comp detail 8 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1986 Carter Landing Blvd	0.50mi	3/2.0	1,352 (-4%)	4mo	$260,000	$192	63
1800 Carter Landing Blvd	0.62mi	3/2.0	1,352 (-4%)	5mo	$262,000	$194	56
1542 Hope Valley Dr	0.64mi	3/2.0	1,411 (+0%)	11mo	$257,000	$182	56
9043 Rockpond Meadows Dr	0.69mi	3/2.0	1,472 (+5%)	1mo	$239,000	$162	55
1547 Eddings Grove Ln	0.63mi	3/2.0	1,460 (+4%)	7mo	$271,500	$186	54
9705 Skydive Ct	0.52mi	3/2.0	1,352 (-4%)	17mo	$263,000	$195	52
1589 Mountain Lake Dr E	0.72mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,391 (-1%)	19mo	$279,500	$201	40
1761 Carter Landing Blvd	0.68mi	3/2.0	1,352 (-4%)	23mo	$289,500	$214	39

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 2.12% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -11.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.59×
• Total profit: $-23,133
• Equity at exit: $29,819

10-year hold

• IRR: -3.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.77×
• Total profit: $-12,824
• Equity at exit: $17,291

Cash invested: $55,997 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 32221

• Home prices YoY: -19.2%
• Rents YoY: 2.1%
• Active inventory: 219
• Price-to-rent: 8.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,936 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,049
• Tax from tax record: −$65 /mo · $781/yr
• Insurance: −$83
• HOA: −$160
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$407
• Net cashflow: $172

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,718

Max offer price $199,990

Occupancy floor 86%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $285	-5% $229	+0% $172	+5% $115	+10% $59
Rent	-10% $19	-5% $96	+0% $172	+5% $249	+10% $325
Rate	-1.0pp $273	-0.5pp $223	base $172	+0.5pp $120	+1.0pp $68

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $49,998
• Closing costs: $6,000
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 21 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
9101 Normandy Blvd Jacksonville, FL	2.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	994	$1,629	$1.64	4d	1	0.20mi
9183 Raptor Dr Jacksonville, FL	3.0	2.0	1091	$1,724	$1.58	5d	1	0.55mi
9099 Rockpond Meadows Dr Jacksonville, FL	3.0	2.0	1688	$1,955	$1.16	18d	1	0.68mi
8642 Hammond Forest Dr Jacksonville, FL	3.0	2.0	1773	$1,900	$1.07	18d	1	1.09mi
8642 Hammond Forest Dr Jacksonville, FL	3.0	2.0	1773	$1,900	$1.07	8d	1	1.09mi
10161 Meadow Pointe Dr Jacksonville, FL	3.0	2.0	1810	$2,035	$1.12	17d	1	1.11mi
1299 Summit Oaks Dr E Jacksonville, FL	3.0	2.0	1610	$2,200	$1.37	2d	1	1.13mi
8697 Elmo Ln Jacksonville, FL	4.0	2.5	1500	$1,975	$1.32	24d	1	1.15mi
1484 Bloomingdale Rd Jacksonville, FL	3.0	2.0	1266	$1,899	$1.50	5d	1	1.19mi
1266 Summit Oaks Dr E Jacksonville, FL	3.0	2.0	1632	$2,160	$1.32	4d	1	1.19mi
2050 Monteau Dr Jacksonville, FL	4.0	2.0	1178	$1,348	$1.14	17d	1	1.19mi
2141 Monteau Dr Jacksonville, FL	4.0	2.0	1398	$1,600	$1.14	24d	1	1.26mi
8267 Pear Rd Jacksonville, FL	3.0	2.0	1120	$1,550	$1.38	24d	1	1.31mi
1512 Rebecca Dr Jacksonville, FL	3.0	2.0	1694	$1,895	$1.12	15d	1	1.31mi
2145 Bourget Dr Jacksonville, FL	4.0	2.0	1174	$1,595	$1.36	8d	1	1.32mi
8240 Pear Rd Jacksonville, FL	3.0	2.0	1182	$1,595	$1.35	11d	1	1.35mi
2225 Corot Dr Jacksonville, FL	4.0	2.0	1330	$1,596	$1.20	15d	1	1.39mi
8255 Yolanda Ct Jacksonville, FL	4.0	2.0	1658	$1,595	$0.96	24d	1	1.44mi
8252 Yolanda Ct Jacksonville, FL	3.0	2.0	1306	$1,789	$1.37	4d	1	1.46mi
2584 Spring Lake Rd Jacksonville, FL	4.0	2.0	1298	$2,300	$1.77	5d	1	1.49mi
2444 Justin Rd E Jacksonville, FL	3.0	2.0	1124	$1,393	$1.24	24d	1	1.50mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $160 · $1,920/yr

Listing history 4 events

1. 2026-03-18
   price $199,990
2. 2026-03-15
   status Pending
3. 2026-02-26
   listed $209,990 Active
4. 2025-02-16
   soldstatus $612,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $781 · $65/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,660 · $138/mo
• Expected delta: +$879/yr (+$73/mo · 112.6%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $23,229
• − Mortgage interest: −$11,203
• − Property taxes: −$781
• − Insurance: −$1,000
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,858
• − Management: −$1,858
• − HOA: −$1,920
• − Depreciation: −$5,818
• Taxable loss: −$1,209
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$290
• After-tax cash flow: $2,355/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Duval
• NCES district ID: 1200480
• Math proficiency: 46% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 45% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $48,987
• Composite: 38.97/100
• National rank: #4076
• State rank: #48 of 73 in FL

Livability — Jacksonville

• Score: 83/100
• State rank: #50
• US rank: #911

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living A Crime C Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Jacksonville, FL
• County: Duval County · 1,015,274 people
• City population: 979,034
• Metro: Jacksonville, FL
• Population (ZIP): 32,833
• Household income: $82,969
• Rent vs Own: 21.4% rent · 78.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 516.0

Population outlook (Duval County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,013,010 people
• By 2030: 1,059,228 · +4.6%
• By 2040: 1,141,439 · +12.7%
• By 2050: 1,205,258 · +19.0%
• By 2075: 1,324,282 · +30.7%
• By 2100: 1,319,620 · +30.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.65)
• Race & ethnicity: White 48% Black 33% Hispanic / Latino 9% Two or more races 6% Asian 4%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 5%
• Common ancestry: Italian 3% Slovak 2% Hispanic 1%
• Foreign-born: 9% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 88% English-only · Spanish 6% French/Haitian/Cajun 2% Vietnamese 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Duval

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 48.7% · R 50.1% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: +0.4pp no change · 2008: -1.9pp · 2024: -1.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+1.5 2020: D+3.8 2016: R+1.5 2012: R+3.6 2008: R+1.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -62.74%
• Current HPI: 263.7591
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.12%
• Metro: Jacksonville, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

-67.3% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-18 Price Changed $199,990 realMLS
• 2026-03-15 Pending — realMLS
• 2026-02-26 Listed $209,990 realMLS
• 2025-02-16 Sold (Public Records) $612,000 Public Records