18146 Evening Star Ave

Garden Grove, FL 34604

$79,000B

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 896 sqft · Built 1988 · Manufactured · Active · 42 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,800/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$414
• Tax + insurance: −$123
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$378
• Net cashflow: $884/mo
• Annual: $10,609/yr
• Cap rate: 19.72%
• Cash-on-cash: 47.96%
• DSCR: 3.13
• 1% rule: 2.28%
• Cash to close: $22,120

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $79k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $884 ($11k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $79k).
• It's been on market 42 days — a 3% lower offer ($77k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $77k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $546 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 64/100 on livability (#667 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: health & safety C-, employment D, schools F.
• Hernando (suburban): math 50% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #38 of 73 in FL (top 52%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.6%/yr); 196 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; solid renter incomes; 2,505 units permitted in Hernando County in 2024 (318 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Hernando County population projected at +11% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• Current owner paid $15k; list at $79k implies a 427% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 1.6% rent growth), your $22k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→25/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 42 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.