18146 Evening Star Ave · Garden Grove, FL 34604

$79,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 896 sqft · Manufactured public records · 42 Days on market

Built 1988 9,750 sqft lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +4.2/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Rent growth +2.9/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Great value on this 2-bedroom, 2-bath mobile home located in Brooksville. The property needs work but provides strong upside potential for the right buyer. Quiet neighborhood, functional floorplan, and low entry price make this a great opportunity!

Key facts

• 9,750 sq ft lot
• Garage
• Built 1988

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Partially furnished; Lot about 0.2 acre; Living area about 896 square feet
• HOA & community: No association; Pets allowed

Exterior

• Parking: 1-car garage
• Utilities: Well water; Septic tank; Electricity connected; Private utilities; Water connected
• Home design: Manufactured home (single wide); Residential property; One level; East-facing
• Construction: Vinyl siding; Metal roof; Pillar/post/pier foundation; Completed condition
• Exterior features: Other exterior features; Paved road access

Interior

• Kitchen: Range; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: 2 bedrooms
• Flooring: Carpet; Linoleum
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Electric heating; Wall/window air conditioning units
• Interior features: Other interior features
• Laundry & utility: Laundry: Other

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $79k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $883 ($11k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $79k).
• Recommended offer: $77k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 64/100 on livability (#667 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: health & safety C-, employment D, schools F.
• Hernando (suburban): math 50% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #38 of 73 in FL (top 52%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.6%/yr); 196 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; solid renter incomes; 2,505 units permitted in Hernando County in 2024 (318 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $546 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Hernando County population projected at +11% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 1.6% rent growth), your $22k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 42 days — a 3% lower offer ($77k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $15k; list at $79k implies a 427% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→25/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $76,630 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 42 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.28% ✓
• Cap rate: 19.71%
• Cash-on-cash: 47.91%
• DSCR: 3.13
• GRM: 3.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $163,072
• Comps found: 5

Show comp detail 5 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
18048 Evening Star Ave	0.19mi	3/2.0	920 (+3%)	3mo	$210,000	$228	84
18178 Evening Star Ave	0.07mi	2/2.0 (-1)	924 (+3%)	15mo	$100,000	$108	74
18100 Celia Ave	0.21mi	2/2.0 (-1)	828 (-8%)	3mo	$160,000	$193	70
2821 Kingswood Cir	0.62mi	2/2.0 (-1)	972 (+8%)	13mo	$145,000	$149	41
2861 Kingswood Cir	0.67mi	2/2.0 (-1)	960 (+7%)	16mo	$175,000	$182	39

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.61% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 43.8%
• Equity multiple: 2.85×
• Total profit: $40,988
• Equity at exit: $11,779

10-year hold

• IRR: 49.2%
• Equity multiple: 5.44×
• Total profit: $98,310
• Equity at exit: $6,830

Cash invested: $22,120 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 34604

• Home prices YoY: -23.4%
• Rents YoY: 1.6%
• Active inventory: 196
• Price-to-rent: 3.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,799 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$414
• Tax from tax record: −$90 /mo · $1,086/yr
• Insurance: −$33
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$378
• Net cashflow: $883

Break-even live

Break-even rent $681

Max offer price $79,000

Occupancy floor 46%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $19,750
• Closing costs: $2,370
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
286 Cherry Birch LN Masaryktown, FL	3.0	1.0–2.0	964	$1,884	$1.95	1d	44	1.46mi

Listing history 21 events

1. 2026-06-18
   price $79,000 Active 42 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $79,999 Active 42 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $79,999 Active 41 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $79,999 Active 40 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $79,999 Active 39 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   pricedays on market $79,999 Active 37 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $82,999 Active 36 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $82,999 Active 33 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   pricedays on market $82,999 Active 32 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $84,999 Active 31 DOM
11. 2026-06-04
    days on market $84,999 Active 28 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $84,999 Active 27 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    pricedays on market $84,999 Active 26 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $89,000 Active 25 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $89,000 Active 24 DOM
16. 2026-05-18
    price $89,999
17. 2026-05-07
    listed $94,999 Active
18. 2002-06-05
    soldstatus $15,000
19. 2000-02-10
    soldstatus $15,000
20. 1998-09-01
    soldstatus $8,500
21. 1996-08-09
    soldstatus $12,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,086 · $90/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,086 · $90/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 25 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 10/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $21,582
• − Mortgage interest: −$4,425
• − Property taxes: −$1,086
• − Insurance: −$395
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,727
• − Management: −$1,727
• − Depreciation: −$2,298
• Taxable income: $9,925
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,382
• After-tax cash flow: $8,216/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Hernando
• NCES district ID: 1200810
• Math proficiency: 50% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 50% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $41,985
• Composite: 42.03/100
• National rank: #3329
• State rank: #38 of 73 in FL

Livability — Garden Grove

• Score: 64/100
• State rank: #667
• US rank: #13693

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment D Housing A+ Health & safety C- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Garden Grove, FL
• County: Hernando County · 169,677 people
• City population: 13,964
• Metro: Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL
• Population (ZIP): 13,642
• Household income: $84,833
• Rent vs Own: 8.5% rent · 91.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 142.0

Population outlook (Hernando County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 189,218 people
• By 2030: 194,367 · +2.7%
• By 2040: 203,398 · +7.5%
• By 2050: 209,589 · +10.8%
• By 2075: 218,452 · +15.4%
• By 2100: 205,923 · +8.8%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (74%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 74% Hispanic / Latino 16% Two or more races 10% Black 3% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 1% Puerto Rican 10% Cuban 3%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 3% Lithuanian 2% Scotch-Irish 2%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada
• Languages at home: 89% English-only · Spanish 8% Other Indo-European 1% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Hernando

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+37.0) · D 31.1% · R 68.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -33.5pp toward R · 2008: -3.6pp · 2024: -37.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+37.0 2020: R+30.2 2016: R+29.0 2012: R+8.5 2008: R+3.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -84.38%
• Current HPI: 276.4751
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.61%
• Metro: Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+650.0% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-18 Price Changed $89,999 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-05-07 Listed $94,999 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2002-06-05 Sold (Public Records) $15,000 Public Records
• 2000-02-10 Sold (Public Records) $15,000 Public Records
• 1998-09-01 Sold (Public Records) $8,500 Public Records
• 1996-08-09 Sold (Public Records) $12,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+6.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,086 · -0.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.