21 Church St

Ellenville, NY 12428

$375,000D+

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,631 sqft · Built 1925 · MultiFamily · Active · 17 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $3,450/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,967
• Tax + insurance: −$1,021
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$724
• Net cashflow: $-262/mo
• Annual: $-3,143/yr
• Cap rate: 6.93%
• Cash-on-cash: 2.27%
• DSCR: 1.10
• 1% rule: 0.92%
• Cash to close: $105,000

Investor read

• This is a 2 × 2-bed/1.0-bath units multifamily listed at $375k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-262 ($-3k/yr) — negative. Per door: $-131/mo.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $329k (12.3% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $345k (8.0% below list).
• It's been on market 17 days — a 2% lower offer ($369k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $329k (12.3% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• In year one you build about $40k of equity ($3k loan paydown + $38k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 60/100 on livability (#961 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A, housing A-; Watch: crime C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Ellenville Central School District (town): math 32% / reading 46% proficiency, ranked #534 of 590 in NY (top 90%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Ellenville Elementary School (math 17% / reading 42%, grade F, #1,729 of 2,108 statewide, top 84%, 674 students, 61% FRL); Ellenville Junior/Senior High School (math 82% / reading 82%, grade A, #452 of 1,100 statewide, top 44%, 731 students, 64% FRL).
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 56% at this address vs 39% district-wide (+17 pts) — the actual schools serving this property are materially stronger than the Ellenville Central School District average implies; a family-tenant draw the district grade alone would hide.
• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $460/mo; built in 1925 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: 72 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 464 units permitted in Ulster County in 2024 (170 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Ulster County population projected at -14% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 3 sale attempts since 14y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $26k; list at $375k implies a 1371% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$64k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone AE (mandatory federal flood insurance) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• Can we see the unit-by-unit rent roll, current vacancy, and any below-market leases? What's the average tenancy length?
• What capital expenditures (roof, boiler, parking lot, exteriors) have been made in the last 5 years, and what's planned in the next 2?
• Built in 1925 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?