21 Church St · Ellenville, NY 12428

$375,000

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,631 sqft · MultiFamily public records · 16 Days on market

Built 1925 8,276 sqft lot Est $295k · 27% over

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +16.2/30.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +5.0/10.0
• 1% rule +4.2/10.0
• Schools +3.3/10.0
• Livability +3.0/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• ARV discount +0.0/15.0

Multi-family units

County records classify this as Multi-Family (2-4 Unit). Listing-text estimate: 2 units. confirmed

Listing remarks MLS

4 BR, 2.5 BATH TWO FAMILY HOME IN V/ELLENVILLE! CLOSE TO PUBLIC TRANSPORTATION. BUYER TO PAY NYS TRANSFER TAX. Additional Information: HeatingFuel:Oil Above Ground,AnnGarbageExpense:0,AnnOtherExpenses:0,AnnSuper_MaintExp:0,AnnUtilityExpense:0,AnnWaterExpense:0,AdjustedGOI:0,

Key facts

• Manicured back yard
• Private driveway
• Municipal water

Tags

• PRIVATE DRIVEWAY
• MANICURED BACK YARD
• SPACIOUS FIRST FLOOR APARTMENT
• NATURAL LIGHT
• SEPARATE ELECTRIC
• MUNICIPAL WATER

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Driveway; Off-street parking
• Utilities: Public sewer; Utilities: see remarks
• Home design: Duplex
• Construction: Block foundation
• Exterior features: Wood siding; Not waterfront

Interior

• Bedrooms: One 2-bedroom unit
• Flooring: Wood floors
• Bathrooms: Two full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Oil heating; Steam heat; No central cooling
• Interior features: First-floor bedroom; First-floor full bath; Natural woodwork
• Laundry & utility: Washer hookup

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2 × 2-bed/1.0-bath units multifamily listed at $375k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-262 ($-3k/yr) — negative. Per door: $-131/mo.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $329k (12.3% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $345k (8.0% below list).
• Recommended offer: $329k (12.3% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 60/100 on livability (#961 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A, housing A-; Watch: crime C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Ellenville Central School District (town): math 32% / reading 46% proficiency, ranked #534 of 590 in NY (top 90%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Ellenville Elementary School (math 17% / reading 42%, grade F, #1,729 of 2,108 statewide, top 84%, 674 students, 61% FRL); Ellenville Junior/Senior High School (math 82% / reading 82%, grade A, #452 of 1,100 statewide, top 44%, 731 students, 64% FRL).
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 56% at this address vs 39% district-wide (+17 pts) — the actual schools serving this property are materially stronger than the Ellenville Central School District average implies; a family-tenant draw the district grade alone would hide.
• Market conditions: 72 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 464 units permitted in Ulster County in 2024 (170 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $40k of equity ($3k loan paydown + $38k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Ulster County population projected at -14% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$64k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 16 days — a 2% lower offer ($369k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 14y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $26k; list at $375k implies a 1371% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $460/mo; built in 1925 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone AE (mandatory federal flood insurance) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $328,734 (12.3% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Can we see the unit-by-unit rent roll, current vacancy, and any below-market leases? What's the average tenancy length?
3. What capital expenditures (roof, boiler, parking lot, exteriors) have been made in the last 5 years, and what's planned in the next 2?
4. Built in 1925 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
5. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
6. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
7. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
8. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
9. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
10. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
11. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.92% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.93%
• Cash-on-cash: 2.27%
• DSCR: 1.10
• GRM: 9.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $295,211
• Comps found: 2

Show comp detail 2 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
4 Chapel St	0.32mi	4/2.0	1,768 (+8%)	1mo	$285,000	$161	70
8 Hickory St	0.41mi	4/2.0	1,572 (-4%)	14mo	$285,000	$181	63

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 22.2%
• Equity multiple: 2.79×
• Total profit: $187,849
• Equity at exit: $337,830

10-year hold

• IRR: 19.9%
• Equity multiple: 6.40×
• Total profit: $566,891
• Equity at exit: $728,543

Cash invested: $105,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 12428

• Home prices YoY: 20.0%
• Active inventory: 72
• Price-to-rent: 18.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,450 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,967
• Tax from tax record: −$404 /mo · $4,850/yr
• Insurance: −$156
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$460 /mo · $5,525/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$724
• Net cashflow: $-262

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,782

Max offer price $328,734

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-50	-5% $-156	+0% $-262	+5% $-368	+10% $-474
Rent	-10% $-534	-5% $-398	+0% $-262	+5% $-126	+10% $11
Rate	-1.0pp $-73	-0.5pp $-167	base $-262	+0.5pp $-359	+1.0pp $-458

2-unit breakdown (identical units grouped — click to expand)

Units	Beds	Baths	Est. rent
▸ 2× units	2	1	$3,450
Total (2 units)			$3,450

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $93,750
• Closing costs: $11,250
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
14 Warren St Ellenville, NY	3.0	2.0	1500	$2,000	$1.33	45d	1	0.32mi

Listing history 13 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $375,000 Active 16 DOM
2. 2026-06-21
   days on market $375,000 Active 15 DOM
3. 2026-06-18
   days on market $375,000 Active 13 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   days on market $375,000 Active 12 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   days on market $375,000 Active 11 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $375,000 Active 10 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $375,000 Active 8 DOM
8. 2026-06-12
   days on market $375,000 Active 7 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $375,000 Active 4 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $375,000 Active 3 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $375,000 Active 2 DOM
12. 2026-06-07
    remarks 693-char remark
13. 2026-06-07
    listed $375,000 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $4,850 · $404/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $5,594 · $466/mo
• Expected delta: +$744/yr (+$62/mo · 15.3%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 9/10 Extreme FEMA zone AE · 99% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 9 d/yr ≥96°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 3/10 Moderate 8% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $41,400
• − Mortgage interest: −$21,006
• − Property taxes: −$4,850
• − Insurance: −$7,400
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,312
• − Management: −$3,312
• − Depreciation: −$10,909
• Taxable loss: −$9,389
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,253
• After-tax cash flow: $-889/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Ellenville Central School District
• NCES district ID: 3610500
• Math proficiency: 32% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 46% ▲ 10.00%
• Median HH income: $45,937
• Composite: 33.22/100
• National rank: #5525
• State rank: #534 of 590 in NY

Livability — Ellenville

• Score: 60/100
• State rank: #961
• US rank: #18871

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A Crime C- Employment C Housing A- Health & safety D- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Ellenville, NY
• Population (ZIP): 6,972

Population outlook (Ulster County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 175,887 people
• By 2030: 171,876 · -2.3%
• By 2040: 161,771 · -8.0%
• By 2050: 151,470 · -13.9%
• By 2075: 133,023 · -24.4%
• By 2100: 113,504 · -35.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority White (63%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 63% Hispanic / Latino 28% Two or more races 9% Black 4%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 1% Puerto Rican 17% Dominican 4%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 5% Italian 3% Lithuanian 3%
• Foreign-born: 9% · Canada, Jamaica, Dominican Republic
• Languages at home: 75% English-only · Spanish 20% Russian/Polish/Slavic 4% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Ulster

• 2024 margin: D (+18.7) · D 59.3% · R 40.7%
• 2008→2024 swing: -4.9pp toward R · 2008: 23.6pp · 2024: 18.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+18.7 2020: D+20.9 2016: D+9.1 2012: D+21.9 2008: D+23.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 62.17%
• Current HPI: 372.5352
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+504.8% since first listed

7 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-05 Listed $375,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2014-09-02 Sold (MLS) $25,500 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2014-02-28 Listed $29,900 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2013-03-07 Listing Removed — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2012-09-07 Listed $65,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2004-05-06 Sold (Public Records) $87,000 Public Records
• 1991-12-09 Sold (Public Records) $62,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+0.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $4,850 · +184.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.