8085 Cowichan Rd

Birch Bay, WA 98230

$528,000D

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,509 sqft · Built 1992 · SingleFamily · Active · 3 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,795/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,769
• Tax + insurance: −$931
• HOA: −$253
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$587
• Net cashflow: $-1,745/mo
• Annual: $-20,942/yr
• Cap rate: 3.30%
• Cash-on-cash: -10.70%
• DSCR: 0.52
• 1% rule: 0.53%
• Cash to close: $147,840

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $528k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-2k ($-21k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $220k (58.4% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $279k (47.1% below list).
• Only 3 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Recommended offer: $220k (58.4% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• In year one you build about $56k of equity ($4k loan paydown + $53k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 62/100 on livability (#406 in WA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A; Watch: cost of living D+, health & safety D, amenities F.
• Blaine School District (town): math 49% / reading 55% proficiency, ranked #120 of 291 in WA (top 41%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Blaine Elementary School (463 students, 54% FRL); Blaine Middle School (459 students, 54% FRL); Blaine High School (609 students, 46% FRL) — zoned schools average 51% FRL vs 33% district-wide (18 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $427/mo.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.1%/yr); 461 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; solid renter incomes; 1,190 units permitted in Whatcom County in 2024 (327 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Whatcom County population projected at +28% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• Current owner paid $117k; list at $528k implies a 351% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$91k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone AE (mandatory federal flood insurance) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 3.3% vs local median 2.6% in Birch Bay — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.
• This rent runs 39% of the median local income ($87k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.