8085 Cowichan Rd · Birch Bay, WA 98230

$528,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,509 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 3 Days on market

Built 1992 8,714 sqft lot $350/sqft · 16% below area Est $627k · 16% under $253/mo HOA · 9% of rent

---

Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +14.6/15.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• Cash flow +4.7/30.0
• Schools +4.7/10.0
• Rent growth +3.3/5.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +0.3/10.0
• DSCR +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Welcome to your Birch Bay beach escape! Tucked inside the gated community of Birch Bay Village, this charming coastal bungalow offers the relaxed beachside lifestyle you’ve been dreaming of! Just steps from private beaches, the marina, golf course, pool, pickleball courts, and parks, every day feels like a vacation. The home has been thoughtfully updated, allowing you to move right in and start enjoying life by the Bay. Recent improvements include updated flooring, kitchen, bathrooms, roof, skylights, ducting, and sump pump. The functional floor plan features two bedrooms and two baths on the main level, plus an upstairs flex space with a closet, half bath, and partial views of Birch

Key facts

• Gated community
• Pickleball courts
• Pool

Tags

• GATED COMMUNITY
• PRIVATE BEACHES
• MARINA
• GOLF COURSE
• POOL
• PICKLEBALL COURTS

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Community waterfront/private beach access; Garden space on lot; Paved lot; MLS listing active
• Financial info: Acceptable financing: Cash, Conventional, FHA, VA
• HOA & community: Part of Birch Bay Village HOA; Annual association fee; Association fee includes common area and road maintenance, security, snow removal; see remarks for details; Community features: athletic court, boat launch, CC&Rs, clubhouse, gated community, golf, park, playground

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage (covered spaces: 1); Driveway; Off-street parking
• Security: Security gate; Security service
• Utilities: Public water; Sewer connected; Electric and natural gas service; Puget Sound Energy power; Xfinity cable and internet
• Home design: Single family residence; 1½-story; Built on lot; Has a view; Level topography
• Construction: Wood construction; Composition roof; Poured concrete foundation; Built on lot (house)
• Exterior features: Wood exterior products; Patio; Irrigation/Sprinkler system; Athletic court; Moorage; Cable TV available; High speed internet available; Gated entry

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Garbage disposal; Microwave; Refrigerator; Stove/Range
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms total — 2 on main level, 1 upper
• Flooring: Ceramic tile; Vinyl plank; Carpet
• Bathrooms: 1 full bath; 1 three-quarter bath; 1 half bath; Two showers; One bathtub
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating; No central cooling
• Interior features: Ceiling fans; Dining room; Fireplace (gas); Loft; Skylights; Vaulted ceilings

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $528k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-2k ($-21k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $220k (58.4% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $279k (47.1% below list).
• Recommended offer: $220k (58.4% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Cap rate 3.3% vs local median 2.6% in Birch Bay — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 62/100 on livability (#406 in WA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A; Watch: cost of living D+, health & safety D, amenities F.
• Blaine School District (town): math 49% / reading 55% proficiency, ranked #120 of 291 in WA (top 41%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Blaine Elementary School (463 students, 54% FRL); Blaine Middle School (459 students, 54% FRL); Blaine High School (609 students, 46% FRL) — zoned schools average 51% FRL vs 33% district-wide (18 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.1%/yr); 461 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; solid renter incomes; 1,190 units permitted in Whatcom County in 2024 (327 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 39% of the median local income ($87k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $56k of equity ($4k loan paydown + $53k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Whatcom County population projected at +28% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$91k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• Only 3 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Current owner paid $117k; list at $528k implies a 351% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $427/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone AE (mandatory federal flood insurance) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $219,714 (58.4% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.53% ✗
• Cap rate: 3.30%
• Cash-on-cash: -10.70%
• DSCR: 0.52
• GRM: 15.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $626,967
• List price: $528,000
• Delta: -9.25%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
8145 Chehalis Rd	0.31mi	3/2.0	1,627 (+8%)	1mo	$810,000	$498	72
5505 Coquitlam Dr	0.02mi	3/1.5	1,348 (-11%)	14mo	$560,000	$415	67
8192 Sehome Rd	0.31mi	3/1.5	1,344 (-11%)	5mo	$497,300	$370	62
8151 Kayak Way	0.53mi	3/2.0	1,492 (-1%)	15mo	$484,500	$325	61
8212 Sehome Rd	0.37mi	3/2.0	1,712 (+14%)	1mo	$649,950	$380	59
8149 Skeena Way	0.48mi	3/2.0	1,486 (-2%)	19mo	$610,000	$410	59
5440 Tsawwassen Loop	0.22mi	3/2.0	1,312 (-13%)	12mo	$549,000	$418	58
8034 Niska Rd	0.47mi	3/2.0	1,600 (+6%)	20mo	$629,900	$394	52
8072 Skeena Way	0.34mi	3/2.0	1,300 (-14%)	18mo	$570,000	$438	46
8211 Quinault Rd	0.49mi	3/2.0	1,728 (+14%)	10mo	$609,500	$353	45
5691 Nakat Way	0.49mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,327 (-12%)	10mo	$975,000	$735	44
5556 Salish Rd	0.51mi	2/1.5 (-1)	1,288 (-15%)	5mo	$385,000	$299	41

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.1% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 14.5%
• Equity multiple: 2.20×
• Total profit: $176,925
• Equity at exit: $475,664

10-year hold

• IRR: 14.4%
• Equity multiple: 5.12×
• Total profit: $609,450
• Equity at exit: $1,025,788

Cash invested: $147,840 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 28 Tenant-Leaning
• State Washington: 28 Tenant-Leaning · D+8
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Just-cause statewide (2021); Seattle layers rent control restrictions + relocation assistance; very tenant-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 98230

• Home prices YoY: 14.0%
• Rents YoY: 3.1%
• Active inventory: 461
• Price-to-rent: 15.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,795 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,769
• Tax from tax record: −$285 /mo · $3,417/yr
• Insurance: −$220
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$427 /mo · $5,118/yr
• HOA: −$253
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$587
• Net cashflow: $-1,745

Break-even live

Break-even rent $5,004

Max offer price $219,714

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-1,446	-5% $-1,596	+0% $-1,745	+5% $-1,895	+10% $-2,044
Rent	-10% $-1,966	-5% $-1,856	+0% $-1,745	+5% $-1,635	+10% $-1,524
Rate	-1.0pp $-1,479	-0.5pp $-1,611	base $-1,745	+0.5pp $-1,882	+1.0pp $-2,021

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $132,000
• Closing costs: $15,840
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
8616 Blue Grouse Way Blaine, WA	3.0	2.0	1735	$3,100	$1.79	45d	1	1.33mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $253 · $3,036/yr
• Likely covers: poolsecurity

Listing history 13 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $528,000 Active 3 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   remarks 693-char remark
3. 2026-06-18
   pricedays on marketlisting id $528,000 Active 1 DOM
4. 2026-06-05
   days on market $569,000 Active 297 DOM
5. 2026-06-02
   days on market $569,000 Active 295 DOM
6. 2026-06-01
   days on market $569,000 Active 294 DOM
7. 2026-05-31
   days on market $569,000 Active 293 DOM
8. 2026-05-30
   days on market $569,000 Active 292 DOM
9. 2026-02-23
   status Active
10. 2026-02-21
    status Pending
11. 2025-10-03
    price $569,000
12. 2025-08-08
    listed $589,000 Active
13. 2000-10-20
    soldstatus $117,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast WA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $3,417 · $285/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $5,174 · $431/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,758/yr (+$146/mo · 51.4%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 4/10 Moderate FEMA zone AE · 22% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 8 d/yr ≥79°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 6/10 Major 9 unhealthy d/yr today · 10 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $33,539
• − Mortgage interest: −$29,576
• − Property taxes: −$3,417
• − Insurance: −$7,759
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,683
• − Management: −$2,683
• − HOA: −$3,036
• − Depreciation: −$15,360
• Taxable loss: −$30,974
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$7,434
• After-tax cash flow: $-13,508/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Blaine School District
• NCES district ID: 5300570
• Math proficiency: 49% ▼ -1.00%
• Reading proficiency: 55% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $57,085
• Composite: 47.05/100
• National rank: #5128
• State rank: #120 of 291 in WA

Livability — Birch Bay

• Score: 62/100
• State rank: #406
• US rank: #16180

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living D+ Crime C+ Employment C+ Housing A Health & safety D User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Birch Bay, WA
• County: Whatcom County · 209,776 people
• Metro: Bellingham, WA
• Population (ZIP): 18,744
• Household income: $86,623
• Rent vs Own: 20.4% rent · 79.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 454.0

Population outlook (Whatcom County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 240,408 people
• By 2030: 254,667 · +5.9%
• By 2040: 281,365 · +17.0%
• By 2050: 307,592 · +27.9%
• By 2075: 375,576 · +56.2%
• By 2100: 421,637 · +75.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (77%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 77% Two or more races 11% Hispanic / Latino 9% Asian 3% Pacific Islander 2% Black 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 5%
• Common ancestry: Portuguese 6% Iranian 4% Lithuanian 3%
• Foreign-born: 13% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 89% English-only · Spanish 4% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Whatcom

• 2024 margin: Strong D (+24.9) · D 60.8% · R 35.9% · Other 3.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +6.9pp toward D · 2008: 18.0pp · 2024: 24.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+24.9 2020: D+23.9 2016: D+17.7 2012: D+12.1 2008: D+18.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 106.58%
• Current HPI: 868.68
• Rent YoY: ▲ 3.10%
• Metro: Bellingham, WA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.65%
• F500 in state: 22

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in WA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Retail	2	$269B
▸Technology / Retail	1	$638B
▸Technology	1	$245B
▸Telecommunications	1	$38B
▸Food / Beverage	1	$36B
▸Automotive / Trucks	1	$34B

Price history

+351.3% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-18 Listed $528,000 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2000-10-20 Sold (Public Records) $117,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+1.8%/yr

Latest (2026): $3,417 · +1.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.