17-19 Limekiln Rd

Phillipsburg, NJ 08865

$269,999C+

6 bd · 2.0 ba · — sqft · Built — · SingleFamily · Active · 45 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,890/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,416
• Tax + insurance: −$516
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$607
• Net cashflow: $351/mo
• Annual: $4,209/yr
• Cap rate: 8.15%
• Cash-on-cash: 6.62%
• DSCR: 1.29
• 1% rule: 1.07%
• Cash to close: $75,600

Investor read

• This is a 6-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $270k. Condition is rated good.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $351 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $270k).
• It's been on market 45 days — a 3% lower offer ($262k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $262k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 76/100 on livability (#135 in NJ, #3,552 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, health & safety A+, cost of living A; Watch: commute F.
• Phillipsburg School District (suburban): math 17% / reading 37% proficiency, ranked #381 of 472 in NJ (top 81%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: Phillipsburg Elementary School (math 10% / reading 26%, grade F, #1,049 of 1,303 statewide, top 81%, 595 students, 75% FRL); Phillipsburg High School (math 27% / reading 51%, grade F, #197 of 399 statewide, top 51%, 1,794 students, 32% FRL) — zoned schools at 54% FRL track the district average.
• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $66/mo.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+4.4%/yr); 24 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; solid renter incomes; 630 units permitted in Warren County in 2024 (315 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Warren County population projected at -10% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 2 sale attempts since 3y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $205k; 32% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe flood risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 8.1% vs local median 4.9% in Phillipsburg — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• This rent runs 43% of the median local income ($80k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 45 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.