17-19 Limekiln Rd · Phillipsburg, NJ 08865

$269,999

6 bd · 2.0 ba · — sqft · SingleFamily · 45 Days on market

Good condition 3,485 sqft lot Est $447k · 40% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +21.7/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +6.9/10.0
• 1% rule +5.7/10.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• Rent growth +3.6/5.0
• Schools +2.3/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Customer Remarks: Well-maintained 3-bedroom, 1-bath duplex located in a desirable residential area of Phillipsburg. This property offers a functional layout with spacious living areas, comfortable bedrooms, and plenty of natural light throughout. Ideal for owner-occupants or investors, the home provides a great opportunity for steady rental income or multi-generational living. Conveniently situated near major commuting routes including Interstate 78, making travel to surrounding areas simple and efficient. Located within a well-regarded school district and close to local shopping, dining, and everyday conveniences. A solid value with strong potential in a growing area.

Key facts

• Natural light
• Well maintained
• Functional layout

Tags

• WELL MAINTAINED
• FUNCTIONAL LAYOUT
• SPACIOUS LIVING AREAS
• NATURAL LIGHT
• WELL REGARDED SCHOOL DISTRICT
• LOCAL SHOPPING

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: Annual tax amount reported

Exterior

• Home design: Duplex (residential income property)
• Construction: Built with other/unspecified construction materials
• Exterior features: No pool

Interior

• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Natural gas heating with forced air; Additional heating details listed in remarks; Window air conditioning units
• Interior features: Partially finished basement; 7 total rooms

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 6-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $270k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $351 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $270k).
• Recommended offer: $262k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 8.1% vs local median 4.9% in Phillipsburg — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 76/100 on livability (#135 in NJ, #3,552 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, health & safety A+, cost of living A; Watch: commute F.
• Phillipsburg School District (suburban): math 17% / reading 37% proficiency, ranked #381 of 472 in NJ (top 81%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: Phillipsburg Elementary School (math 10% / reading 26%, grade F, #1,049 of 1,303 statewide, top 81%, 595 students, 75% FRL); Phillipsburg High School (math 27% / reading 51%, grade F, #197 of 399 statewide, top 51%, 1,794 students, 32% FRL) — zoned schools at 54% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+4.4%/yr); 24 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; solid renter incomes; 630 units permitted in Warren County in 2024 (315 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 43% of the median local income ($80k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Warren County population projected at -10% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 45 days — a 3% lower offer ($262k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 3y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $205k; 32% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $66/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe flood risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $261,899 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 45 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.07% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.15%
• Cash-on-cash: 6.62%
• DSCR: 1.29
• GRM: 7.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $447,497
• List price: $269,999
• Delta: -39.66%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 13 within 2.0 mi

Show comp detail 7 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
288 Mercer St	0.39mi	6/2.0	—	3mo	$280,000	—	67
601 S Main St	0.26mi	5/2.5 (-1)	—	5mo	$305,000	—	64
903 Carhart St	0.45mi	6/3.5	—	7mo	$460,000	—	55
833 Culkin St	0.52mi	5/2.0 (-1)	—	6mo	$406,500	—	53
857 Columbus Ave	0.48mi	5/1.5 (-1)	1,494	18mo	$275,000	$184	43
521 Parkwood Ct	0.68mi	5/3.0 (-1)	—	9mo	$549,900	—	39
5 Colby Pl	0.69mi	5/2.0 (-1)	—	23mo	$320,000	—	31

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 4.41% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -6.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.77×
• Total profit: $-17,170
• Equity at exit: $40,258

10-year hold

• IRR: 5.3%
• Equity multiple: 1.42×
• Total profit: $31,715
• Equity at exit: $23,345

Cash invested: $75,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 21 Tenant-Leaning
• State New Jersey: 21 Tenant-Leaning · D+6
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Anti-eviction Act requires just-cause statewide; rent control in 100+ municipalities; one of the most tenant-friendly states.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 08865

• Rents YoY: 4.4%
• Active inventory: 24
• Price-to-rent: 7.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,890 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,416
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$337 /mo · $4,050/yr
• Insurance: −$112
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$66 /mo · $798/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$607
• Net cashflow: $351

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,446

Max offer price $269,999

Occupancy floor 83%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $67,500
• Closing costs: $8,100
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
786 S Main St Unit 2 Phillipsburg, NJ	5.0	2.0	—	$2,700	—	43d	1	0.16mi

Listing history 21 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $269,999 Active 45 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $269,999 Active 44 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $269,999 Active 43 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $269,999 Active 42 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $269,999 Active 40 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $269,999 Active 39 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $269,999 Active 37 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $269,999 Active 36 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $269,999 Active 35 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $269,999 Active 34 DOM
11. 2026-06-05
    days on market $269,999 Active 31 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $269,999 Active 30 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $269,999 Active 29 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $269,999 Active 28 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $269,999 Active 27 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $269,999 Active 26 DOM
17. 2026-05-04
    listed $269,999 Active 677-char remark
18. 2023-09-20
    soldstatus $205,000 Sold
19. 2023-08-21
    status Under Contract
20. 2023-08-07
    listed $189,900 Active
21. 2023-08-06
    historical $189,900

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 8/10 Severe FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 78% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥100°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 4/10 Moderate 19% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 5 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $34,680
• − Mortgage interest: −$15,124
• − Property taxes: −$4,050
• − Insurance: −$2,147
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,774
• − Management: −$2,774
• − Depreciation: −$7,855
• Taxable loss: −$45
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$11
• After-tax cash flow: $4,220/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab

A well-maintained, move-in-ready home with good condition and potential for further improvements.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Paint the exterior siding — Enhances curb appeal and value
• Both Replace window treatments — Improves energy efficiency and aesthetics
• Both Install a smart thermostat — Saves energy and improves comfort
• Both Add a smart lock — Enhances security and convenience

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Paint the exterior siding — Enhances curb appeal and value ↑
• Both Replace window treatments — Improves energy efficiency and aesthetics ↑
• Both Install a smart thermostat — Saves energy and improves comfort ↑
• Both Add a smart lock — Enhances security and convenience ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Phillipsburg School District
• NCES district ID: 3412960
• Math proficiency: 17% ▼ -15.00%
• Reading proficiency: 37% ▼ -9.00%
• Median HH income: $45,364
• Composite: 23.2/100
• National rank: #7943
• State rank: #381 of 472 in NJ

Livability — Phillipsburg

• Score: 76/100
• State rank: #135
• US rank: #3552

Category grades

Amenities A- Commute F Cost of living A Crime B+ Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings C-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Phillipsburg, NJ
• County: Warren County · 63,532 people
• City population: 31,427
• Metro: Allentown-Bethlehem-Easton, PA-NJ
• Population (ZIP): 31,427
• Household income: $79,949
• Rent vs Own: 31.6% rent · 68.4% own
• Severe rent burden: 1284.0

Population outlook (Warren County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 105,498 people
• By 2030: 103,974 · -1.4%
• By 2040: 99,748 · -5.5%
• By 2050: 94,535 · -10.4%
• By 2075: 87,220 · -17.3%
• By 2100: 80,421 · -23.8%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (70%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 70% Hispanic / Latino 13% Black 10% Two or more races 9% Asian 3% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 1% Puerto Rican 5%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 5% Iranian 2% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 10% · Canada, Jamaica, China
• Languages at home: 86% English-only · Spanish 7% Other Indo-European 2% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Warren

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+20.7) · D 38.8% · R 59.5% · Other 1.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: -6.7pp toward R · 2008: -14.0pp · 2024: -20.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+20.7 2020: R+16.2 2016: R+25.6 2012: R+15.8 2008: R+14.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -240.76%
• Current HPI: 238.2423
• Rent YoY: ▲ 4.41%
• Metro: Allentown-Bethlehem-Easton, PA-NJ
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.05%
• F500 in state: 34

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NJ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Consumer Goods	3	$31B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$153B
▸Technology	2	$21B
▸Insurance	2	$20B
▸Healthcare	2	$19B
▸Financial Services	1	$70B

Price history

+42.2% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-04 Listed $269,999 NJMLS
• 2023-09-20 Sold (MLS) $205,000 GSMLS
• 2023-08-21 Pending — GSMLS
• 2023-08-07 Listed $189,900 GSMLS
• 2023-08-06 Coming Soon $189,900 GSMLS