5723 Cherry Tree Dr

Medulla, FL 33811

$100,000B-

3 bd · 3.0 ba · 924 sqft · Built 1984 · Manufactured · Pending · 62 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,748/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$524
• Tax + insurance: −$105
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$367
• Net cashflow: $752/mo
• Annual: $9,023/yr
• Cap rate: 15.32%
• Cash-on-cash: 32.22%
• DSCR: 2.43
• 1% rule: 1.75%
• Cash to close: $28,000

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/3.0-bath manufactured listed at $100k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $752 ($9k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $100k).
• It's been on market 62 days — a 6% lower offer ($94k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $94k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $691 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 66/100 on livability (#601 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, cost of living A-, crime B+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety D-.
• Polk (suburban): math 39% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #62 of 73 in FL (top 85%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Medulla Elementary School (math 41% / reading 42%, grade F, #1,437 of 2,144 statewide, top 68%, 515 students, 59% FRL); George W. Jenkins Senior High (math 25% / reading 49%, grade F, #340 of 667 statewide, top 52%, 2,451 students, 37% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.2%/yr); 360 active listings in the ZIP; 8 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 3d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 10,384 units permitted in Polk County in 2024 (1,716 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Polk County population projected at +33% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $75k (43%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $12k; list at $100k implies a 700% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 0.0% rent growth), your $28k cash investment doubles in ~5 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→25/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 62 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.