5723 Cherry Tree Dr · Medulla, FL 33811

$100,000

3 bd · 3.0 ba · 924 sqft · Manufactured public records · 62 Days on market

Built 1984 10,624 sqft lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +3.5/10.0
• Livability +3.3/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Under contract-accepting backup offers. CALLING ALL INVESTORS AND VISIONARIES! This creative fixer-upper is a choose-your-own-adventure property with THREE SEPARATE LIVING SPACES, all under one roof. Possible In Law Quarters. UNLIMITED POTENTIAL. DOOR NUMBER ONE: A stylish, cozy 1-bedroom with full kitchen, bath, and living area. Completely remodeled, move-in-ready, and honestly. .. CUTE AS A BUTTON. DOOR NUMBER TWO: Renovation is underway but waiting for its final glow-up. This space features a dramatic living room with soaring ceilings, a full kitchen and bath, plus a huge bedroom you step down into, complete with its OWN PRIVATE ENTRANCE. Big bones, big possibilities. DOOR NUMBER THREE

Key facts

• Dramatic living room
• Completely remodeled
• Studio style space

Tags

• THREE SEPARATE LIVING SPACES
• IN LAW QUARTERS
• COMPLETELY REMODELED
• DRAMATIC LIVING ROOM
• PRIVATE ENTRANCE
• STUDIO STYLE SPACE

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Property classified as residential manufactured home; Unfurnished; No CDD; No homestead indicated; Universal property identifier available
• HOA & community: No association reported

Exterior

• Utilities: Public sewer; Water connected; Sewer connected; Cable available; Fire hydrant nearby; No water source listed
• Home design: Manufactured single-wide home; One story; North-facing
• Construction: Metal siding; Metal roof; Crawlspace foundation; Estimated building area listed
• Exterior features: Asphalt road access; Lot dimensions approximately 85 x 125; Lot size about 0.24 acres

Interior

• Kitchen: Range; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms
• Flooring: Ceramic tile; Laminate; Vinyl
• Bathrooms: 3 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Cathedral ceilings; High ceilings; Vaulted ceilings; Living room/dining room combo; Split bedroom floorplan
• Laundry & utility: Dedicated laundry room; Washer; Dryer

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/3.0-bath manufactured listed at $100k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $752 ($9k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $100k).
• Recommended offer: $94k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 66/100 on livability (#601 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, cost of living A-, crime B+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety D-.
• Polk (suburban): math 39% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #62 of 73 in FL (top 85%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Medulla Elementary School (math 41% / reading 42%, grade F, #1,437 of 2,144 statewide, top 68%, 515 students, 59% FRL); George W. Jenkins Senior High (math 25% / reading 49%, grade F, #340 of 667 statewide, top 52%, 2,451 students, 37% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.2%/yr); 360 active listings in the ZIP; 8 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 3d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 10,384 units permitted in Polk County in 2024 (1,716 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $691 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Polk County population projected at +33% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 0.0% rent growth), your $28k cash investment doubles in ~5 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 62 days — a 6% lower offer ($94k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $75k (43%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $12k; list at $100k implies a 700% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→25/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $94,000 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 62 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.75% ✓
• Cap rate: 15.32%
• Cash-on-cash: 32.22%
• DSCR: 2.43
• GRM: 4.8

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 23.9%
• Equity multiple: 1.95×
• Total profit: $26,548
• Equity at exit: $14,910

10-year hold

• IRR: 29.9%
• Equity multiple: 3.32×
• Total profit: $64,930
• Equity at exit: $8,646

Cash invested: $28,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 33811

• Home prices YoY: -26.2%
• Rents YoY: -0.2%
• Active inventory: 360
• Price-to-rent: 4.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,748 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$524
• Tax from tax record: −$63 /mo · $760/yr
• Insurance: −$42
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$367
• Net cashflow: $752

Break-even live

Break-even rent $797

Max offer price $100,000

Occupancy floor 52%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $25,000
• Closing costs: $3,000
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 8 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1089 Old South Dr Lakeland, FL	2.0	1.0	764	$1,225	$1.60	3d	1	0.19mi
5527 Gaur Ln Lakeland, FL	2.0	2.0	942	$1,550	$1.65	23d	1	0.27mi
1143 Old South Dr Lakeland, FL	2.0	2.0	1008	$1,299	$1.29	3d	1	0.29mi
5133 Old Road 37 Mulberry, FL	2.0	2.0	1050	$1,565	$1.49	3d	1	0.82mi
4917 Malibu Ct Lakeland, FL	2.0	1.0	822	$1,195	$1.45	3d	1	1.01mi
1448 Marigold Dr Lakeland, FL	3.0	2.0	1055	$1,055	$1.00	3d	1	1.35mi
6720 S Florida Ave Lakeland, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1108	$1,964	$1.77	3d	8	1.37mi
1028 Harden Ct Lakeland, FL	2.0	2.0	891	$1,200	$1.35	23d	1	1.38mi

Listing history 9 events

1. 2026-05-07
   status Pending
2. 2026-05-01
   price $100,000
3. 2026-04-02
   status Active
4. 2026-03-24
   status Pending
5. 2026-03-20
   price $120,000
6. 2026-03-14
   price $150,000
7. 2026-02-25
   listed $175,000 Active
8. 1998-06-23
   soldstatus $12,500
9. 1998-06-23
   soldstatus $13,500

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $760 · $63/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $830 · $69/mo
• Expected delta: +$70/yr (+$6/mo · 9.2%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 25 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $20,982
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,602
• − Property taxes: −$760
• − Insurance: −$500
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,679
• − Management: −$1,679
• − Depreciation: −$2,909
• Taxable income: $7,854
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,885
• After-tax cash flow: $7,138/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Polk
• NCES district ID: 1201590
• Math proficiency: 39% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 43% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $43,979
• Composite: 34.74/100
• National rank: #5132
• State rank: #62 of 73 in FL

Livability — Medulla

• Score: 66/100
• State rank: #601
• US rank: #11528

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A- Crime B+ Employment B Housing A+ Health & safety D- User ratings B+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Medulla, FL
• County: Polk County · 740,051 people
• Metro: Lakeland-Winter Haven, FL
• Population (ZIP): 29,472
• Household income: $90,263
• Rent vs Own: 23.0% rent · 77.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 477.0

Population outlook (Polk County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 752,975 people
• By 2030: 804,621 · +6.9%
• By 2040: 906,117 · +20.3%
• By 2050: 1,000,476 · +32.9%
• By 2075: 1,197,520 · +59.0%
• By 2100: 1,271,518 · +68.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority White (63%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 63% Hispanic / Latino 23% Two or more races 14% Black 8% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 6% Puerto Rican 5% Cuban 4%
• Common ancestry: Italian 3% Lithuanian 2% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 8% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 83% English-only · Spanish 14% French/Haitian/Cajun 1% Tagalog/Filipino 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Polk

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+20.7) · D 39.2% · R 59.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: -14.6pp toward R · 2008: -6.1pp · 2024: -20.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+20.7 2020: R+14.4 2016: R+14.1 2012: R+6.8 2008: R+6.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -109.57%
• Current HPI: 309.0061
• Rent YoY: ▼ -0.19%
• Metro: Lakeland-Winter Haven, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+700.0% since first listed

9 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-07 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-05-01 Price Changed $100,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-02 Relisted — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-24 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-20 Price Changed $120,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-14 Price Changed $150,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-02-25 Listed $175,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 1998-06-23 Sold (Public Records) $13,500 Public Records
• 1998-06-23 Sold (Public Records) $12,500 Public Records

Property tax history

+7.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $760 · +19.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.