802 Bryce Ct Unit D

Wilmington, NC 28405

$203,000D

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,352 sqft · Built 2000 · Condo · Pending · 24 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,849/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,065
• Tax + insurance: −$173
• HOA: −$275
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$388
• Net cashflow: $-52/mo
• Annual: $-622/yr
• Cap rate: 5.99%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.09%
• DSCR: 0.95
• 1% rule: 0.91%
• Cash to close: $56,840

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath condo listed at $203k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-52 ($-622/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $194k (4.5% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $185k (8.9% below list).
• It's been on market 24 days — a 2% lower offer ($200k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $185k (8.9% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 70/100 on livability (#142 in NC) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: health & safety A+, cost of living B+, housing B+; Watch: amenities C-, employment C-, crime F.
• New Hanover County Schools (urban): math 48% / reading 53% proficiency, ranked #61 of 178 in NC (top 34%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: College Park Elementary (math 23% / reading 33%, grade F, #1,022 of 1,410 statewide, top 73%, 457 students, 99% FRL); M C S Noble Middle (math 57% / reading 62%, grade B, #48 of 475 statewide, top 11%, 652 students, 32% FRL); New Hanover High (math 60% / reading 53%, grade C, #261 of 535 statewide, top 49%, 1,466 students, 100% FRL) — zoned schools average 77% FRL vs 42% district-wide (36 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.9%/yr); 191 active listings in the ZIP; 21 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 23d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 2,581 units permitted in New Hanover County in 2024 (1,185 in 5+ unit buildings).
• New Hanover County population projected at +37% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 5 sale attempts since 24y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $12k (6%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $165k; 23% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 6.0% vs local median 2.6% in Wilmington — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• This rent runs 32% of the median local income ($70k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.